Import PVC crashes through key thresholds in China, SEA, India; how low can it go?

Asian PVC markets remain under intense downward pressure, with import K67 prices across major regions breaking below key psychological thresholds over the past two weeks. Prices in China have fallen to their lowest since 2008, while those in India and Southeast Asia have dropped lows last seen more than five years ago. The renewed weakness comes as a major Taiwanese producer reportedly trimmed its November offers to India again, according to traders.

Further Nov cuts from Taiwanese major confirmed by Indian traders

A second reduction in November offers from the Taiwanese major, by another $20/ton to $700/ton CIF India, was reported by multiple traders in India. The producer itself has not confirmed the adjustment.

The latest move follows an earlier $40/ton cut, bringing the total decline to $60/ton. An Indian trader described it as “a very rare move” from the supplier, adding, “We’ve seen them revise down their benchmark offers after announcement only once or twice before.”

Another trader noted that the lower prices were applied even to already-contracted volumes. “The company has reduced prices even for shipments already confirmed for November,” he said.

The producer’s latest adjustments, however, were limited to India. November offers to China remain at $670/ton CIF, to Southeast Asia at $675-685/ton CIF, and to Vietnam at $650/ton CIF, traders said.

India weighed down by inventories and policy uncertainty

Even after sharp price cuts, India’s PVC demand remains subdued. Converters continue to operate cautiously amid high stock levels and lingering regulatory uncertainty.

“There are converters with inventories currently exceeding their 30-day requirements,” said one Indian market participant, noting that most buyers are focusing on liquidating existing stock rather than fresh purchases.

Market sentiment has also been dampened by delays in the Indian Finance Ministry’s decision on long-expected anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on PVC imports. The prolonged wait has left the market in a “wait-and-see” mode, as players fear duties could be implemented by mid-November.

Seasonal factors are further complicating trade. The ongoing Northeast Monsoon has brought heavy rains and flooding to southern India, weighing on construction-related PVC demand.

Despite competitive export offers from the US at $550-560/ton FAS Houston, Indian buyers have mostly turned down CIF offers at around $680/ton, preferring to stay closer to the mid-$600s range. The reluctance reflects concerns that any ADD implementation during the cargo’s 30-40 day voyage could make landed prices uneconomical.

Meanwhile, a smaller Taiwanese producer has reportedly suspended offers to India entirely, seeking to protect margins amid the falling benchmarks and regulatory uncertainty.

China’s prolonged weakness drags the region lower

China’s continued market downturn remains the central driver of Asia’s bearish sentiment. Domestic PVC prices have collapsed under the pressure of excessive carbide-based production and sluggish local consumption, prompting exporters to push more volumes overseas.

This flood of Chinese-origin cargoes, reportedly offered as low as the mid-$600s/ton CIF India, has intensified price competition and forced other Asian and Western suppliers to match the decline.

Weak downstream performance continues to compound the problem. Converters are running at reduced rates, with little incentive to restock amid soft demand from the construction and property sectors.

Southeast Asia mirrors the regional downturn

Southeast Asian PVC markets are facing similar headwinds. The rainy season, coupled with fragile regional economies, has suppressed construction activity and dampened demand.

A Vietnamese trader said, “Demand remains weak. Most players are still waiting and watching.” Another Vietnamese converter noted operating rates at around 90% capacity, well below the usual 130% in stronger seasons.

Some traders cited market speculation that a major US producer might shut down its plant until December, potentially offering brief price support if confirmed. Still, sentiment remains largely downbeat across the region.

Prices may stay under strain, with few stabilizing factors in sight

The region’s PVC markets are expected to remain under downward pressure in the near term, as chronic oversupply shows no signs of easing. Demand remains weak across China and Southeast Asia, while in India, consumption could recover modestly once the monsoon season fully recedes.

New US-ASEAN trade deals may lend some support to sentiment in Southeast Asia, though players largely agree that these developments are unlikely to trigger a strong rebound. Similarly, any progress in China-US trade talks could at least bring clarity to regional trade flows, if not immediate demand relief.

In India, a potential implementation of anti-dumping duties in November could establish a price floor for imports by limiting inflows of Chinese-origin material. However, this same policy would likely add further pressure on China and Southeast Asia, as unsold Chinese volumes are redirected to these markets.

Additional downward pressure may also emerge from year-end inventory clearances. On the other hand, supply-side interventions such as reduced operating rates or shutdowns at Asian plants, or confirmation of a rumored US production outage, could temporarily slow the pace of decline.