India's LLDPE ADD on Mid-East and Malaysia could hand US exporters a bigger slice of import market

India’s proposal to impose five-year anti-dumping duties on LLDPE imports may do far more than protect domestic producers: it could fundamentally redraw the country’s import map and create a major opening for US exporters.

According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, suppliers targeted by the proposed duties, namely the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia, accounted for a combined 36% of India’s LLDPE imports in 2025. As these traditional suppliers face the prospect of higher trade barriers, players increasingly expect the United States to emerge as the biggest beneficiary, leveraging its abundant PE supply and growing export orientation to expand its presence in one of Asia’s largest import markets.

A third of India’s imports could be up for grabs

India imported nearly 920,000 tons of LLDPE in 2025, up 15% from the previous year.

Singapore remained the largest supplier with a 34% market share, followed by the UAE (15%), Saudi Arabia (14%), the United States (12%) and Malaysia (7%).

Should duties be imposed as proposed, suppliers from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia would collectively see their competitive position weakened, putting more than one-third of India’s import market into play. Although some volumes may eventually be replaced by domestic production, traders believe a sizable portion will need to be sourced from alternative overseas suppliers.

US already expanding before duties take effect

Trade statistics suggest this transition has already begun.

During the first four months of 2026, the US increased its share of India’s LLDPE imports to 17%, overtaking both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to become India’s second-largest supplier behind Singapore. Meanwhile, the combined share of the three countries targeted by the proposed duties fell sharply to around 30%.

The changing rankings indicate that US material has already been gaining traction in India even before the anti-dumping proposal reaches the implementation stage, strengthening expectations that American suppliers could capture an even larger portion of future import demand.

Chinese headwinds strengthen US export push

The potential shift also comes at a time when China, once the most reliable outlet for US LLDPE exporters, is absorbing less imported PE amid rising self-sufficiency and a rapid build-up in domestic capacity.

The US was China’s largest LLDPE supplier in both 2023 and 2024, accounting for 24% and 21% of total imports, respectively. However, its share fell to 16% in 2025, when Saudi Arabia overtook the US as China’s top supplier amid tariff-related uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics. In the first five months of 2026, the US regained some ground, supplying 315,000 tons of LLDPE to China and taking an 18% share, but the broader issue is no longer only market share. China’s overall import requirement is shrinking sharply.

Recent ChemOrbis Stats Wizard data showed China’s total PE imports plunging to nearly decade-low levels in May, while exports stayed near record highs for a second consecutive month. This suggests that China is gradually moving away from its traditional role as a major import sink and becoming a more active regional supplier, supported by years of aggressive capacity additions and subdued local demand.

For US producers, this makes India increasingly important. Unlike China, India remains structurally dependent on LLDPE imports, with demand still large enough to absorb sizable overseas volumes. If the proposed ADD weakens the competitiveness of Saudi, UAE and Malaysian cargoes, US suppliers could find a timely opportunity to redirect more material toward India, especially as their room for growth in China becomes increasingly constrained.

India’s domestic capacity to reduce import needs but eliminate them

India’s expanding domestic PE capacity is expected to gradually reduce import dependence over the longer term, supported by projects from HMEL, HPCL and Reliance Industries.

However, market forecasts do not suggest that local production will fully replace imports in the near term, particularly for specialized grades and during periods of healthy demand. As a result, imports will remain an important component of India’s supply balance, although the mix of supplying countries could change considerably.

Trade flows likely to be redirected across Asia

For Middle Eastern producers, the proposed duties could necessitate a broader redistribution of export volumes across Asia and other regions.

Cargoes traditionally destined for India may increasingly target Southeast Asia, Türkiye, Africa or other import markets, intensifying competition elsewhere. At the same time, suppliers exempt from the proposed measures, most notably the United States and Singapore, are expected to strengthen their positions in India as buyers diversify sourcing and seek to minimize regulatory risk.

As the industry awaits the government’s final decision, the proposed anti-dumping measure is increasingly being viewed not merely as a domestic trade remedy, but as a development capable of reshaping PE trade flows well beyond India’s borders.