India’s PVC market eyes bottom after April cuts, but converters remain cautious

PVC traders in India are talking about a market bottom especially after benchmark prices from Taiwan fell for the fourth month in a row, with some players even pointing to producers selling below costs. However, buying has still not picked up and nobody is convinced about any surge in procurements by converters in the near term.

Benchmark prices to India from a Taiwanese major have fallen by $110/ton, or about 14%, over four months since the beginning of the year to the current $700/ton CIF. “We consider the latest price as the bottom from the major. We don’t expect the company to reduce prices further — it may come up with either a small hike or a rollover for May,” said an Indian trader based in Mumbai.

Historical data shows that the major producer’s first-quarter PVC prices have declined only twice since 2013—this year and in 2022. In most years, Q1 prices have increased, except for a flat quarter in 2017.

Taiwanese allotments sold out

The major Taiwanese producer’s PVC K67-68 offers for April were down $40/ton from March at $700/ton CIF India, while offers to China fell by $25/ton, also to $700/ton CIF. FOB Taiwan offers have been reduced by $20/ton to $660/ton. Traders said the deeper fall in CIF India prices reflected the current freight rates that were lower than in January-February.

Initial player estimates pointed to allocations of up to 40,000 tons to India for April. However, current estimates, which may be more realistic considering that the major is undergoing a turnaround currently, point to allocations of about 20,000 tons. Some players say the major could raise the allotments depending on the buying interest. The allocations were all sold out in about 15-20 minutes of the major’s price notifications, traders said.

Buyers keep playing coy

Another Mumbai-based trader added, “We think the major is unlikely to reduce prices further. But this is more a function of the fact that further price cuts will impact on profitability drastically, rather than a result of any better buying sentiment. We don’t expect buyers to come back in droves to buy for April. And in May, we may already start seeing the bearishness of the impending monsoon from June to September. Buyers may be back in August, as we expect some buying to happen for the post-monsoon period, let’s see.”

At the same time, another player pointed out that there were traders still holding inventories bought at higher prices from the market in the previous year and may want to buy some more at the current lows to “average out the values in stock”, or limit losses. “This may see some buying activity but how far this could raise prices is a different question,” he added.

Prices fall by 4% in one week

Looking at the ChemOrbis Price Index data, the midpoint of import PVC K67 assessments has fallen by 13% since early December. This includes a sharp $25/ton (nearly 4%) drop in the past week alone, bringing current prices to $670-700/ton CIF India, cash. The market is currently at its lowest level since May 2020.


Chinese players also unwilling to cut prices further

At the lower end of price assessments, Chinese suppliers have resisted cutting prices further. “We are currently seeing Chinese players too showing an unwillingness to sell PVC K67 below the $670/ton CIF levels. A couple of weeks ago, we saw some buying around that level, but lately we’re not seeing that much enthusiasm to buy the Chinese PVC,” an Indian trader said.

A major reason for prices failing to look up currently is the lack of any government infrastructure tenders. “We were expecting some tenders as the national budget for the 2025-26 fiscal year announced a significantly higher capital expenditure outlay, which did mean a higher spending for infrastructure. This has not materialized, and we really don’t know when these will surface,” he added.