India’s S-PVC ADD announcement likely soon as court gives ‘go-ahead’

Reports indicate that India is set to move forward with anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on suspension-grade PVC (S-PVC) imports, after a court ruling cleared the way for the investigation to proceed. Market participants now expect an imminent announcement of the final ADDs.

The High Court of Gujarat issued its latest ruling late last week on a petition filed in March by domestic producers challenging a lower court’s stay on the S-PVC investigation. The earlier stay had temporarily halted the probe until the end of April following a plea from a group of players in Gujarat.

Probe’s final recommendations seen shortly

“We don’t expect anyone to appeal to the Supreme Court against the High Court’s latest order allowing the government to resume the probe. Once the government receives the written order in the next couple of days, we anticipate the release of the final recommendations and a green light for ADD implementation,” a Mumbai-based trader said.

He expected a major announcement in this regard at the latest by next week. An agent of a major Taiwanese player in India also expected an imminent government action although he felt an appeal against the order in a higher court could still throw a spanner in the works. “As of now though, obstacles have been removed and the government may act on the anti-dumping probe shortly,” he added.

Changes in provisional ADDs likely

The anti-dumping investigation, launched on March 26, 2024, examines claims that imports from China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the US have harmed domestic producers.

In early November, the investigation revealed the new provisional duties, varying based on origin and producer, with Chinese imports facing duties ranging from $82-167/ton, depending on the specific supplier. Other ADD rates are as follows: Taiwan $25-163/ton, Indonesia $73-200/ton, Japan $54-147/ton, South Korea $51-161/ton, Thailand $53-184/ton, and the United States $164-339/ton.

But players see changes likely in the provisional duties to be announced by the government panel amid the latest global trade tariff imbroglio.

Potential adjustments for US and China duties

“It remains to be seen how the ADDs will pan out finally, but we believe that in the middle of the current reciprocal trade tariff announcement by the Trump administration, steep provisional ADDs on US PVC may be pared down. But Chinese ADDSs may not change, or may be increased, as major producers are thought to have lobbied for higher ADDs against Chinese SPVC imports,” a trader said.

Meanwhile, early in the week, a Japanese trader is thought to have offered a PVC K67 shipment to Indian buyers at the current high-end of ChemOrbis assessments at $700/ton CIF India. “This possibly net backs to a US export price in the low-$600s/ton, which is lower than the current published price of $645/ton FAS Houston,” a trader said.

“This probably means that the seller may have an inkling of the final ADD on US PVC being lower than what was proposed in the provisional list in November,” he added.