India’s local PVC prices crash to pandemic lows; market awaits Taiwan’s April decision

India’s local PVC K67 prices have plunged to their lowest levels since the pandemic-era lows of May 2020, according to ChemOrbis Price Index data. Despite the typically strong first quarter, demand remains sluggish, with sellers lamenting the absence of the usual seasonal boost. Market players now await April price announcements from Taiwan’s major producer, anticipating further cuts.

Pressure from Chinese shipments

On March 7, a major Indian PVC producer slashed local prices by INR1,500/ton ($17/ton) and introduced additional incentives to spur sales ahead of the financial year-end on March 31. Prices in western India fell to INR74,150/ton ($1,056/ton) FD, cash, with bulk buyers receiving extra discounts of up to INR3,000/ton.

Market sources attributed the price cuts to sluggish demand and mounting pressure from Chinese shipments, which were reported as low as $680/ton CIF last week, with confirmed deals at the same level. Locally held offers for Chinese-origin K67 also dropped, reaching INR66,000/ton FD, cash.

A trader noted that while no official deals were confirmed below $680/ton CIF, some may have taken place discreetly. Despite India’s provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese PVC, market players said deals were still happening as current prices remained attractive. Meanwhile, China’s PVC market continued to face worsening supply-demand dynamics.

Local prices drop 8% since early January

ChemOrbis Price Index data show that the weekly midpoint of local K67 price ranges, including both domestic and imported origins, has declined by 8% since the latest downtrend kicked off in early January. Compared to the highest level of 2024, recorded in July, the market has seen a cumulative loss of 23%.

The import market has also plunged to its weakest level since May 2020, with CIF prices dropping 10% since mid-December 2024, when the downturn started.

April offers from Taiwan may reinforce bearishness

Indian PVC players are now focused on Taiwan’s major producer’s April pricing decision, expected this week. While initial expectations suggested a rollover, sentiment has turned more bearish, with most market participants now predicting further reductions of around $20/ton.

The Taiwanese supplier reportedly struggled to sell its allotted 20,000 tons to India in March, signaling weak demand. In the first quarter, the company implemented a cumulative $70/ton reduction for shipments to India, yet those failed to generate a demand boom.

A Mumbai trader noted that another price cut in April would reinforce the bearish outlook but speculated that it might be the last of this cycle. “Prices are already at multi-year lows, and producers struggle to maintain margins at the current levels. Plus, we are still hopeful to see some pent-up demand in India to show up, as converters have yet to build sufficient stocks for the upcoming Monsoon period,” he said. Another trader, however, commented, “If demand remains weak and Chinese oversupply persists, prices may stay under pressure longer.”