Italy’s HDPE film and b/m prices plunge to 5-year low in September

European PE markets extended their downtrend in September, with prices for several grades sliding to multi-year lows under the pressure of weak demand and abundant supply. Prices have now been falling since early Q2, culminating in a sharp drop that pushed HDPE film and blow moulding prices in Italy and HDPE b/m prices in West Europe to their lowest levels since December 2020—an almost five-year low. Other PE grades also dropped to new cycle lows across Italy and West Europe.

Multi-year lows across Europe

While HDPE film and b/m grades have borne the brunt of the prolonged downturn, other PE grades also hit multi-year lows. In Italy, LLDPE C4 film and HDPE inj. prices hit over 2-year lows, while LDPE prices are almost at 2-year lows. The same applies to West Europe, where HDPE film, LLDPE C4 film and HDPE injection prices hover slightly above 2-year lows whereas LDPE nears a 2-year low.

These multi-year lows underscore the depth of the current bearish cycle, particularly for HDPE grades that have revisited levels last seen nearly five years ago. Cumulative drops since around March reached for €220-230/ton HDPE film and b/m in Italy and just over €200/ton for HDPE b/m in West Europe.

Long supply and slack demand drive the market

Market sources consistently pointed to ample availability and subdued consumption as the twin drivers of the downturn. Sellers admitted to granting successive discounts, with rollovers quickly replaced by drops of €20-70/ton. A suppler, for instance, was reported to have revised initial decreases of €30/ton to as much as €55/ton in order to secure sales.

Buyers confirmed that supply is long across all origins, including competitive US and Middle Eastern cargoes, while demand remains weak and around 10% below last year’s levels. A distributor noted, “There is plenty of material, and no improvement is expected in demand or sales. Buyers anticipate reductions, not increases, for October.”

US and import offers add pressure

The impact of aggressive import offers has been particularly visible. South Korean LLDPE C4 film at €850/ton CIF exemplifies how non-European cargoes are undercutting regional sellers. Similarly, Middle Eastern HDPE b/m was offered at €810/ton CIF, 60 days, which stood nearly €100/ton below the lowest spot level in Italy.

However, the main factor accelerating the downtrend is the potential EU exemption of US PE from import duties. Buyers have largely remained on the sidelines in expectation of cheaper future arrivals. This has intensified downward pressure on regional prices. Some traders confirmed offering US lots with discounts as steep as €70/ton, as they are trying to clear their inventories. Yet, buyers often refrained from purchasing due to sufficient stocks and expectations of further decreases.

Producers try to stem the fall

Despite these downward pressures, some sellers pointed out that the market may be approaching a bottom. With producers already facing profitability concerns, there is a belief that steep additional losses are unlikely. One seller commented, “Prices are dropping week-on-week, but a collapse can be excluded as producers are already losing money. The bottom might be near, and producers could try to hinder the downturn by adjusting operating rates.”

Outlook: Stable to softer into Q4

The consensus outlook for October is for further modest decreases of €20-30/ton, particularly as supply remains abundant and demand shows no signs of revival. The broader view for Q4 points to stable to slightly softer trends, with market participants expecting no meaningful rebound before the year-end destocking phase.