LDPE drives early firmness in Europe’s PE markets despite softer ethylene

Europe’s PE markets entered the new year on a stable to firmer footing, as producers moved to test rollovers to hike attempts despite a €25/ton drop in the January ethylene contract. Early January activity remained thin across regions, with many players only returning to their desks after the extended holiday break, while LDPE emerged as the clear outlier on the upside amid tight availability.

As producers gradually unveiled their January pricing strategies—somewhat later than usual amid the lingering holiday slowdown—early offers largely pointed to hikes of up to €50/ton or more for LDPE, alongside rollover to modest increase attempts for other PE grades. In the meantime, buyers have begun to concede to higher prices for LDPE and MDPE, underpinned by tightening supply conditions.

Italy: Sellers test firmer openings as buyers return slowly

In Italy, initial PE offers emerged with rollovers to increases, even though the ethylene settlement pointed lower. Producers’ strategy has centered on recovering margins, with LDPE targeted for large hikes due to lingering supply tightness, while HDPE and LLDPE are mostly facing rollover ambitions.

A distributor of a European producer said, “Our supplier is aiming for €50/ton increases on LDPE, while HDPE and LLDPE are expected to roll over. Demand remains calm for now as many buyers are just returning after the holidays.”

Traders also reported fresh US-origin offers, up by $20-30/ton from December, which are likely to be passed through to customers this month.

On the buying side, converters confirmed receiving modest hikes. However, most buyers preferred to wait and see, expecting that pricing discussions may evolve in the second half of January amid subdued demand.

Northwest Europe: Early firmness meets thin post-holiday activity

In Northwest Europe, market activity was similarly muted at the start of the month. Following the €25/ton ethylene drop, producers shared their intention to open January with rollovers or increases, citing profitability concerns and short LDPE availability.

LDPE prices were reported €50/ton higher, while HDPE and LLDPE largely remained stable. Still, much of the current price structure is based on initial offers and notional levels, leaving room for revisions as more deals surface.

A distributor in Germany commented that although their supplier is seeking €30-50/ton hikes, they are willing to sell from stock at rollovers to reduce inventories. Meanwhile, a trader in the Netherlands noted that LDPE tightness is enabling sellers to pass on gains, though demand conditions will need close monitoring in the second half of the month.

Converters across the region largely adopted a wait-and-see approach, with some reporting €20/ton hikes but continuing negotiations to secure at least rollovers.

Margin recovery efforts hinge on demand response

As January unfolds, Europe’s PE price ranges remain provisional, shaped mainly by early offers rather than concluded deals. Producers appear determined to defend rollovers or secure increases, particularly in LDPE, despite the softer ethylene outcome.

However, weak end-user demand, earlier pre-buying, and comfortable supply in HDPE and LLDPE are expected to limit upside potential. Market participants broadly agree that the second half of January will be decisive, as demand response will ultimately determine whether initial hike attempts can be sustained.

For now, LDPE stands on firmer ground, while the rest of the PE complex remains balanced between cost relief and margin-driven seller resistance, keeping the early-2026 outlook cautious rather than directional.