LDPE rally stands out in global PE markets, will prices maintain momentum into March?

Global PE markets, which traditionally showed signs of improvement from January, have followed an upward trend across many regions in February. Although price increases have been observed across all PE grades, LDPE has stood out with sharper gains compared to LLDPE and HDPE. This was largely due to turnarounds in the Middle East, shutdowns in Asia, and supply disruptions in Europe, which tightened LDPE availability the most and stimulated demand for this product.

Now, with growing buyer resistance in mind, there is curiosity about whether these price hikes will extend into March.

China: LDPE gains shine out on reduced domestic production

China’s drive for self-sufficiency and export growth has led to a supply surplus for most polymers over the last couple of years. In the PE market, the persistent weakness in HDPE film has been the clearest sign of this trend, while LDPE film has been the least impacted among the three main PE film grades, partly due to more producers shifting to EVA production. More producers switched to EVA production to capitalize on rising prices for this product, leading to dwindling supply and buoyant demand for LDPE.

SEA and India: Market underpinned by global/regional shutdowns

Southeast Asia’s PE markets opened February on a firm footing, as elevated upstream costs outweighed muted demand following the post-CNY break. Although the upward trend faltered later in the month due to weak support from derivative consumption, limited supply from the Middle East amid the Q1/2 turnaround season and indefinite shutdowns driven by poor margins across Southeast Asia helped keep PE prices stable. A Saudi Arabian major has already raised LLDPE film and HDPE blow molding offers by $20/ton from February, while increasing LDPE film prices by $30/ton.

As a side note, a potential influx from China may keep players cautious, while reduced import volumes and multi-month high ethylene prices in Asia could encourage sellers to test new PE hikes.

Earlier this month, reduced local supply amid scheduled turnarounds supported a rise in import prices in India, with LDPE showing more pronounced gains compared to HDPE and LLDPE film markets. According to weekly average data from ChemOrbis, import LDPE prices rose by 4% or $40/ton from about a month ago, while HDPE and LLDPE film increased by 3% ($20-30/ton) as of the week ending February 23. Players plan to gauge whether the firming will be sustained into the new month based on supply-demand dynamics.

Europe: LDPE sees up to €150 hike attempts, will more come?

Spot PE markets in Europe saw bullish sentiment return by mid-Q1, driven by improved demand and rising costs, with increases of €50-100/ton reflected in February deals. LDPE took center stage, with initial offers rising by more than €100/ton due to production hiccups and some suppliers closing their order books quickly. In brief, sellers secured gains of around €50-80/ton for HDPE, MDPE, and LLDPE grades, while LDPE absorbed larger hikes of €100/ton amid tight supply and uncompetitive import offers.

According to ChemOrbis data, weekly averages for LDPE rose by €90/ton from a month ago, compared to gains of €70-80/ton for HDPE and LLDPE film as of the week ending February 23. In Italy, spot LDPE offers surged by €100/ton, while other commodity PE grades saw increases of €70-75/ton. For next month, the outcome of upcoming ethylene contracts will set the tone of the market, with firm sentiment remaining intact among distributors.

Türkiye: Players see a higher chance of rising for LDPE next month

Although the bull run lost some momentum in the second half of February due to easing demand following earlier active purchases, PE prices remained firm in Türkiye. On a weekly average, Middle Eastern LDPE film soared by $60/ton in February while HDPE and LLDPE film gained $20-30/ton in the period.

Import LDPE’s relatively moderate premium over China and Southeast Asia supports expectations of new hikes for this product in Türkiye. However, sellers may concede to rollovers for other PE products next month if financial challenges and the Ramadan lull continue to weigh on demand. This emerging wait-and-see approach is driven by weaker-than-expected demand for derivatives ahead of Ramadan and persistent cash flow issues. March projections are being voiced with a less bullish tone amid a recently emerging resistance from buyers toward larger hikes.

Still, elevated costs and ongoing supply limitations—particularly due to limited stocks at sellers’ bonded warehouses—are expected to keep the market firm, according to traders. This outlook is further reinforced by strong performances in Europe and India, where PE fared better in February than in the previous month.