LDPE shows first signs of recovery after eight-month slide in Europe

After eight straight months of declines, the European LDPE market is finally showing the first signs of resistance against further erosion, with small hike attempts emerging in mid-November. Some regional and import suppliers have begun to test slightly firmer ground on the back of limited availability and multi-year low prices that have squeezed margins to unsustainable levels.

Shrinking supply triggers firmer stance

Market sources reported that LDPE availability has tightened at some regional producers, prompting them and their distributors to stand firm on November offers or even seek hikes within the ranges if their prices used to form the low ends. A Middle Eastern supplier was also said to have applied increases for November, signaling an attempt to reverse the long-standing downtrend.

“LDPE is showing early signs of stabilization,” a distributor in Italy commented. “This grade shows pockets of tightening, and European producers are no longer willing to concede to special discounts. It feels like the market has reached the bottom in November.”

In early November, Europe-origin LDPE cargoes were sold at attractive levels to nearby Türkiye, with some transactions dipping below €900/ton and $1000/ton CIF for different grades. These export volumes likely helped ease sales pressure within the bloc, allowing producers to adopt a firmer stance at home.

Producers try to defend margins amid multi-year low levels

LDPE prices in West Europe and Italy hover at their lowest levels in more than two years, following cumulative drops of €350-400/ton through the eight-month downturn. A trader remarked, “Producers cannot afford to keep lowering LDPE prices—monomer costs are stable, and the gap between ethylene and polymer values has narrowed to critical levels. We’re already seeing attempts to put a floor under prices.”

Sentiment shifts as bottom talks spread

Market sentiment is gradually shifting, with many players convinced that the market bottom has been hit. Several traders and converters reported rollovers to small drops of €20–25/ton on November deals, noting that the pace of decreases has slowed substantially compared to previous months.

A converter in West Europe commented, “We are seeing stable offers and even talk of slight hikes in LDPE. Demand is still weak, but producers are clearly trying to defend the floor.”

Some players noted that LDPE demand has shown mild improvement compared to October, partly due to limited pre-buying as buyers take advantage of low prices. However, overall consumption remains constrained by sluggish derivative markets and short visibility heading into year-end.

Outlook: December to see rollovers, but LDPE stands out

Most players foresee stability or small corrections for LDPE in December, contrasting with flat or softer expectations for other PE grades. The year-end slowdown and holiday shutdowns are likely to keep trading volumes thin, yet producers’ efforts to curb output and restore profitability may lend support to LDPE.

“LDPE seems to be leading the stabilization phase within PE,” a trader summarized. “We might not see sharp hikes immediately, but the trend has clearly shifted. After eight months of continuous decline, even small upward attempts mark a turning point.”