Mid-East PP extends momentum in Feb; PE remains cautious in run-up to Ramadan

Polyolefin markets across the Middle East delivered a mixed performance in February. PP extended its recovery trend across most regional markets, building on the rebound that started in January after a prolonged downturn that pushed prices down to 5-year lows. PE, meanwhile, displayed a more fragmented picture, with selective firmness in some markets but continued weakness in others around their lowest levels since 2020.

Producers’ efforts to restore margins after heavy losses throughout 2025 remained a key driver behind the upward adjustments, particularly in PP. However, subdued downstream demand and the approaching Ramadan season continued to temper buying appetite, keeping overall market sentiment cautious.

Saudi Arabia: PP rally gains speed; PE divergence persists

In Saudi Arabia, PP prices rose for a third consecutive month in February, extending the rebound from record lows seen in the fourth quarter of 2025. The cumulative gains of SAR500($133/ton) over the past three months reflect producers’ attempts to recover margins, supported by relatively tighter availability following multiple plant shutdowns in January.

Despite the recovery, market participants noted that demand conditions remain moderate, suggesting that the rally is still largely supply- and margin-driven rather than demand-led. Al-Waha shut its 450,000 tons per annum PP plant in Al-Jubail in January for scheduled maintenance, while SPC took its PDH plant with the same capacity offline at the same location. Plus, there were some electricity outages that caused production disruptions in Al-Jubail last month, which also paved the way for tighter supply out of Saudi Arabia.

By contrast, the Saudi PE market remained divided. February pricing showed a clear split across grades. While some HDPE grades posted modest increases, LDPE and certain other grades continued to decline, deepening their slide to multi-year lows. LLDPE also remains around five-year low levels.

This widening divergence underscores uneven supply-demand dynamics across PE grades. Additionally, a scheduled maintenance shutdown at a major Saudi cracker and downstream PE units that began in early February may influence supply conditions in the coming weeks.

United Arab Emirates: PP posts first gains since mid-2025; PE edges up modestly

In the UAE, PP recorded its first monthly increases since mid-2025, rebounding from five-year lows. The February gains followed stability in January and were mainly attributed to regional suppliers’ firmer stance amid squeezed margins.

However, buyer resistance persisted due to sluggish downstream demand. Market activity remained limited, with the upcoming Ramadan period further dampening trading momentum. Overall supply levels were described as largely adequate despite some selective tightness.

For PE, February marked the second consecutive month of slight increases with a total reaching $40/ton, according to ChemOrbis Price Index. The recovery from 5-year lows for HDPE and LLDPE was supported in part by the absence of competitively priced US offers, which had previously weighed on the market. Still, acceptance of higher levels proved challenging as demand fundamentals remained weak.

East Mediterranean: PP recovery continues; PE firmness limited to LDPE

In Jordan and Lebanon, PP extended the gains that began in January from 5-year lows after a five-month downward trend. February increases were modest, with market participants highlighting that the lack of a meaningful demand recovery continues to cap sellers’ attempts to push prices higher. Total increases in January and February reached $50/ton in the East Med PP markets, according to ChemOrbis Price Index.

Inventory levels were reported to be comfortable, reinforcing the view that further gains will require either stronger consumption or tighter supply conditions.

In PE, the upward momentum was mainly confined to LDPE, which posted limited increases supported by relatively tighter supplies from certain producers. ChemOrbis Price Index suggests a cumulative increase of $40/ton on average in the past two months. Meanwhile, LLDPE and HDPE grades largely moved sideways, reflecting balanced-to-weak demand conditions, following the $20-40/ton increases witnessed in January.

Is there further recovery ahead?

In the near term, margin pressure and selective supply constraints are expected to continue underpinning sellers’ stance, particularly in PP markets where the rebound appears more structured and consistent across the region.

Nevertheless, subdued downstream demand and the seasonal Ramadan slowdown are likely to limit the scope of further price increases for both PP and PE. Unless supply disruptions intensify or demand shows a clearer improvement, regional polymer markets are expected to remain cautiously balanced, with modest fluctuations rather than sharp movements.