Mid-East supply shock sends local PP, PE prices sharply higher across the board

The disruption of imports from the Middle East, the world’s top PP exporter and the second largest PE exporter, has sent shock waves through global polymer markets. Supply concerns have pushed buyers toward domestic markets, where massive price hikes have emerged as the Middle East war entered its second week. At the same time, participants warn that markets are highly and potentially vulnerable to a sharp correction should normal trade flows resume.

With Middle Eastern cargoes largely absent from the market, buyers across Asia, Europe, and the Mediterranean have increasingly turned to local suppliers to secure material. This sudden shift in demand has tightened domestic availability and fueled aggressive price increases across nearly all major polymer markets.

Price discovery becomes increasingly difficult

Another striking feature of the current market environment is the difficulty of identifying firm price levels. Market participants report that real offers are scarce as sellers hesitate to commit to prices amid extreme volatility.

“Very few sellers are quoting now. Those who still give prices are testing extremely high levels. Under the current circumstances, it has become very difficult to determine where the market truly stands,” a trader in Vietnam said.

Another Vietnamese trader also emphasized the unusual conditions. “Local prices have surged to levels we have never seen before, but the number of actual offers is very limited. Many suppliers are holding back material while they wait for more clarity,” he noted.

The lack of liquidity in spot markets has made price discovery increasingly challenging, with rumors of sharply higher offers circulating even as confirmed deals remain limited following Long Son Petrochemicals’ warning of operational disruption due to constraints of feedstock supply from the Middle East.

Traders in Türkiye also said, “Local producer Petkim has been implementing gradual and notable increases in its polyolefin prices since last week. As producers suspended their official import offers, demand for prompt material has risen rapidly. Distributors, meanwhile, have either raised their prices for the modest volumes they hold or preferred not to issue offers, as they have been unable to clarify current replacement costs. Prices change daily.”

Asia leads the rally, but pressure spreads globally

China and Southeast Asia have recently seen the rally accelerate, with Vietnam recording the steepest increases. India, meanwhile, has witnessed its strongest gains since the pandemic-era supply disruptions.

Beyond Asia, the shock has quickly spread to other regions. Türkiye and Egypt are experiencing extreme volatility, with prices reportedly changing daily or even hourly as buyers scramble to secure available material. In Europe, three-digit price hikes have emerged amid concerns that the disappearance of Middle Eastern cargoes will force the region’s top alternative supplier—the United States—to redirect shipments toward more lucrative markets.

According to ChemOrbis Price Index data, local polymer prices have surged sharply in the two weeks since the war erupted.

Polyolefin price increases since the outbreak of the war
Dependence on Middle Eastern supply

The severity of the price reaction partly reflects the heavy reliance many markets have on Middle Eastern polymer supplies. The region plays a central role in global PP and PE trade, making disruptions particularly impactful for import-dependent markets.

According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, India and Türkiye stand out as among the most exposed markets for PP imports, while ASEAN countries rely heavily on Middle Eastern PE shipments. Europe also maintains significant dependence on the region, particularly for PP.