No provisional duties on Vietnam: what does it mean for Europe’s PET market?

The European Commission has decided not to impose provisional anti-dumping duties on PET imports from Vietnam, according to a pre-disclosure statement dated December 19, 2025, which was communicated to industry participants. The notification confirms that no interim measures will be imposed, as the probe moves toward its final stage.

Crucially, the Commission stressed that the anti-dumping investigation will continue, underlining that the absence of provisional measures does not signal the end of the case. Rather, the decision reflects a procedural choice to wait until the final stage of the investigation, instead of intervening early.

The probe, which was formally launched on May 22, 2025, followed a complaint filed by PET Europe in April, alleging that Vietnamese PET was being dumped in the EU market and causing injury to domestic producers. While provisional duties have now been ruled out, definitive measures remain possible, with a final decision currently expected by July 2026.

Why provisional duties were skipped: Market interpretation

Although the Commission has not publicly disclosed its full assessment, market participants largely agree on the underlying rationale.

First, Vietnamese PET imports into the EU are already curbed, largely due to high and unfavorable freight costs, which have curbed competitiveness and constrained volumes. This has weakened the argument of “urgent injury”, a key condition typically required to justify provisional anti-dumping measures at an early stage of an investigation.

A distributor who previously marketed Vietnamese-origin material reported that sales from this origin have come to a halt amid the ongoing anti-dumping investigation, while offers from other Asian suppliers are currently priced too high to be workable.

Second, Vietnamese material has so far remained a secondary supply source rather than a disruptive force in the European PET market. Against this backdrop, the Commission appears to have concluded that current import levels are not problematic enough to warrant immediate trade defense action.

According to Stats Wizard, Türkiye, which has been the largest PET supplier to the EU27 in January–September 2025, increased its share in total imports to around 28%, up from 25% a year earlier. The gain was supported by Türkiye’s geographic proximity, cost competitiveness and expanding domestic capacity, reinforcing its role as a preferred nearby source amid tightening trade defenses.

Vietnam followed with a share of roughly 23%, down from 27% in the same period of 2024, reflecting weaker competitiveness as freight economics deteriorated and regulatory scrutiny intensified. Egypt, the third-largest supplier, further strengthened its position, lifting its share from around 12% to nearly 16% year on year.

This evolving supplier mix had already been highlighted in earlier ChemOrbis news, which pointed to rising protectionist measures as a driver of more regionalized PET trade flows, favoring nearby and cost-efficient origins over longer-haul suppliers.

That said, the decision does not remove future risk. Under EU rules, the Commission retains the right to impose definitive duties later on, including retroactive measures, should dumping and injury be confirmed by the end of the investigation.

What changes for the market now?

In practical terms, the decision leaves short-term trade flows largely unchanged. Vietnamese PET continues to face logistics-driven constraints, rather than policy barriers, limiting its impact on European pricing and supply dynamics.

However, the risk horizon has now shifted. Market attention is increasingly focused on the definitive phase of the investigation, with Vietnamese producers and EU buyers expected to concentrate on defense submissions ahead of the February 2026 deadline.

The outcome in mid-2026 still holds the potential to reshape PET trade flows, particularly at a time when Europe’s import landscape has already been altered by anti-dumping duties on Chinese PET and ongoing scrutiny of other origins.

Case remains alive despite procedural pause

In sum, the Commission’s move reflects a measured, wait-and-see approach, rather than any softening of its stance. The EU has effectively signaled that Vietnamese PET imports do not currently justify provisional duties, but the case remains very much alive, with final outcomes still capable of altering market dynamics in 2026.

For now, the European PET market continues to navigate weak demand and fragile margins, while trade defense developments linger in the background—no longer an immediate shock, but still a structural risk on the horizon.