One door shuts in Brazil, another opens in Europe for US PE

The United States’ polyethylene (PE) trade outlook is undergoing a sharp twist: Brazil, once a vital growth market, has moved to curb inflows with punitive anti-dumping duties, while the EU is weighing tariff relief that could make American resin far more competitive. Defying earlier concerns about US PE potentially facing retaliation from the EU on top of the existing 6.5% customs duty, US PE is now preparing to enjoy zero duties in Europe, which will help it compensate its loss in Brazil.

Brazil’s abrupt closure

Brazil has imposed anti-dumping duties of $199.04/ton on US-origin PE and $238.49/ton on Canadian resin, hitting a key destination for US producers.

In 2024, Brazil ranked as the fourth-largest regional outlet for US PE with 1.49 million tons, according to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard. Volumes were already expected to decline slightly in 2025 to around 1.26 million tons, and the new tariffs will likely deepen that contraction.

Having lost 10% of their sales in Brazil, US exporters are now left scrambling for alternatives; while Brazil’s buyers may pivot to Middle Eastern or Asian suppliers.

Europe: A potential lifeline

In sharp contrast, the EU has proposed zero tariffs for certain US goods, including polyethylene. At present, US-origin PE faces a 6.5% duty in the bloc. Since the trade war first kicked off in March, the uncertainty has pervaded markets about any possible retaliation on US PE from the EU, which would make it uncompetitive with additional levies. Now let alone additional duties, the existing 6.5% duty will be removed, allowing US producers to sharpen their competitiveness in one of the world’s largest plastics markets.

US exports to the EU27 totaled 2.12 million tons in 2024, slipping slightly to a projected 2.08mn tons in 2025. With duties erased, this downward drift could reverse, positioning Europe as a stabilizing outlet just as Brazil closes off.

The EU was the 2nd largest destination for US PE last year. Its share in overall US PE exports fell marginally from 16% to 15% so far in 2025. Despite this year’s decrease, year-to-date data from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard suggests that the EU has been the top buyer of US PE, far surpassing China and Mexico.

The measure still requires approval by the EU Parliament and member states, but the signal is positive.

Trade pivot in numbers

Overall, the data from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard -as can be seen in the table below - show weaker reliance on China and Brazil, with Europe and ASEAN becoming relatively more important.

Outlook: Brazilian door is closing, but Europe’s may swing wide open

The dual developments suggest a realignment of US PE trade flows. Brazil’s punitive duties will reduce US share in Latin America, while the EU’s tariff proposal—if passed—could offset those losses and anchor US exports in Europe.

In short: the Brazilian door is closing, but Europe’s may swing wide open—leaving US PE producers balancing setbacks with new opportunity.

Partners	2024	2025 (E)	Yearly Change
Mexico	1,833	1,646	-11.38%
EU27	2,116	2,083	-1.59%
China	2,403	1,517	-58.39%
Brazil	1,494	1,262	-18.41%
ASEAN	1,221	1,289	5.58%
Canada	974	807	-20.63%
Colombia	442	461	4.33%
Türkiye	473	581	22.86%
India	228	218	-4.72%
Peru	265	273	2.86%