PVC loses much of its war premium as oversupply and weaker costs weigh on Türkiye

Türkiye’s PVC market remained firmly under pressure this week as declining feedstock costs, easing geopolitical tensions, and persistent oversupply combined to push prices lower. The recent drop in crude oil below $80/bbl, alongside falling spot naphtha and ethylene markets, has removed much of the cost support that buoyed PVC during the Middle East conflict.

Against a backdrop of sluggish demand and ample availability, market players have begun voicing expectations for further declines in July.

Lower bids test new thresholds

Pressure was most evident in the import market, where dutiable PVC K67 saw rapid decreases for US origin. Although not confirmed by primary sources at the time of writing, buyers increasingly discussed the possibility of seeing offers below the $800/ton CIF threshold, with one manufacturer indicating a buy target of $770/ton.

The duty-free market also softened further as June wore on. European offers were reported at around $940-950/ton CIF, although they failed to attract buying interest. A profile producer noted that a sharply lower upstream chain in Europe could pave the way for offers closer to $900/ton CIF next month.



Freight provides the only notable support

While PVC has lost most of its traditional cost support, firmer container freight rates from China continued to limit the downside for Asian material. Market participants noted that rising logistics costs offset the impact of additional export price reductions from China during the week, preventing a steeper correction in Chinese-origin PVC offers.

Even so, many traders argued that freight remains the only meaningful bullish factor in the current market. With crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene all retreating from recent highs, broader production economics have turned increasingly bearish.

Long supply put heavy pressure on PVC

On the domestic front, distributors continued to offer sizeable discounts to stimulate sales amid weaker import prices and subdued demand. Meanwhile, Petkim’s planned restart contributed to a comfortable supply outlook, keeping buyers in no rush to replenish stocks. As a result, local PVC K67 prices fell by $40/ton week over week to hit a new low of $1200/ton ex-warehouse Türkiye, cash, including VAT.

July outlook stays bearish unless demand revives

Looking ahead, market participants see little reason for a shift in price trend in the short term. The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and expectations of smoother petrochemical flows through the Strait of Hormuz have erased much of the war-driven premium across feedstock markets. At the same time, oversupplied conditions in Türkiye continue to weaken sellers’ pricing power, while the approaching summer holiday season in Europe is expected to dampen regional demand further.

Some players noted that PVC prices turned downward earlier than PP and PE and have already surrendered a large portion of their conflict-related gains. It has also become increasingly common to see processors offering resin in the spot market, underscoring the length of supply. Still, a few traders argued that if demand improves even modestly next month, the pace of price declines could begin to slow, although expectations for July remain largely skewed to the downside.