PVC players expect final notifications on India’s ADDs shortly

Asian PVC markets brace for the impact of India’s long-awaited anti-dumping duties (ADDs), with import prices under pressure amid ample Chinese availability and price adjustments by major producers.

Market speculates on adjustments; players on edge

Players await the government’s final notification on ADDs, which could significantly impact trade flows and pricing. Industry sources noted that the delay was likely due to a court ruling, which has now reportedly favored Indian PVC producers who lobbied for protection against low-cost imports, especially from China.

Some market sources have been speculating on potential adjustments to the ADD rates. A source close to the proceedings has suggested that the proposed ADD on US PVC imports could be reduced to $10-40/ton. This has led to speculation that the Indian government may be seeking to avoid escalating trade tensions with the US, particularly with a new administration about to take charge.

Moreover, there is talk in the market that the ADD could be rationalized across all import origins to around $40/ton, which would be a more balanced approach across various supplier countries. However, this remains speculative, and market participants are holding their breath, with rumors circulating that a major announcement could be imminent—possibly as soon as today or tomorrow.

In November, India announced the new provisional duties with the aim of protecting its domestic industry from cheaper imports from China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States. The anti-dumping investigation was initiated following a petition from three PVC producers—Chemplast Cuddalore Vinyls Limited, DCM Shriram Limited, and DCW Limited—who alleged that imports from these countries were causing significant injury to local producers. The proposed ADDs vary based on origin and producer, with Chinese imports facing duties ranging from $82-167/ton, depending on the specific supplier. Other ADD rates are as follows: Taiwan $25-163/ton, Indonesia $73-200/ton, Japan $54-147/ton, South Korea $51-161/ton, Thailand $53-184/ton, and the United States $164-339/ton.

Import prices soften from 4-month high

In the meantime, import PVC K67 prices for all origins fell by $25/ton this week, settling at $745-785/ton CIF India, cash, according to ChemOrbis Price Index data. Northeast Asian offers were observed across the pricing spectrum, with the latest offer from a Taiwanese major positioned at the high end of this range. The Indian market softened from recent four-month highs following the latest price cuts.

Some converters reportedly sought direct purchases from Chinese suppliers, lured by prices below the mid-$700s/ton. Small volumes of Chinese K67 were offered as low as $730/ton CIF, but trades remained limited due to stringent payment terms requiring upfront cash. Meanwhile, non-dutiable Japanese PVC K67 offers were quoted at $825-830/ton CIF, translating to approximately $770/ton CIF for dutiable materials from other Northeast Asian origins.

Indian traders highlighted the pressure on Chinese suppliers to offload surplus PVC, with India being one of the few viable destinations for their shipments. However, they expressed uncertainty about how ADD implementation might impact the flow of imports from China.