Post-holiday return clouded by trade war and tumbling oil in Türkiye

As most polymer players returned from the Eid al-Fitr holiday only this week, they were met with a global storm fueled by a deeper trade war, sparked by a series of tariffs imposed by the US on imports from dozens of countries, particularly China, coupled with a sharp drop in oil prices. The resulting loss of cost support, along with domestic liquidity issues, has dashed hopes for a post-holiday recovery in demand among Turkish players for now.

Consequently, the PP, PVC, PE, PET, and styrenics markets kicked off the new month with declines amid cautious buying activity. While price negotiations are ongoing, attention is also shifting to the potential medium-term impact of the rapidly escalating trade war across the board on Türkiye.

Markets see a weak start to the post-Eid al-Fitr period   

This week, noticeable price drops were observed for PP and PET, as sellers began to announce their new offers. The tariffs imposed by US President Trump, along with retaliatory duties from trade partners such as China, the EU, and Canada, combined with Türkiye’s existing economic challenges, kept demand from buyers sluggish. While the fate of American PVC and PE was a matter of curiosity for Turkish players, PS and ABS offers were affected by slumping oil prices.

In the meantime, Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs—except for those targeting China—which was followed by the European Union delaying the adoption of its retaliatory tariffs as the week progressed. These developments helped oil benchmarks slow their bearish slide. However, prices still posted significant weekly losses.

PPH decreases gain momentum after holiday

Saudi Arabian PP prices added to their losses this week, with more sellers returning with their fresh offers and relatively competitive offers emerging from a new plant. Raffia prices at the low-$1000s/ton were discussed in some cases, with even deals speculated slightly below this threshold, versus confirmed levels at $1020-1030/ton. PP fibre touched as low as $1050-1060/ton CIF on the low end, albeit for materials from a newly-launched plant. “These cargos were offered for test purposes and modest amounts,” a converter said.

Sellers confirmed seeing slower demand for PP compared to PE. This, coupled with higher €/USD parity, lower April propylene contracts, and faltering PP uptrend in Europe ahead of the Easter holiday, led to downward revisions for European and Egyptian fibre offers.

Mid-Eastern PE producers reveal drops

Middle Eastern producers approached the market with $10-30/ton drops for LLDPE and HDPE film in line with previous expectations, disregarding a few failed rollover attempts. Buyers said, “We expect to obtain additional discounts on deals. Cash constraints at home, lower upstream costs across the board, and tariff uncertainties cast a pall on purchasing activity.” Some players also pointed to a potential rise in ex-USG volumes for the coming term, which may weigh on PE suppliers. A source from a Middle Eastern supplier said, “We hope to gauge demand more clearly next week, as a widespread ‘wait-and-see’ stance currently pervades the market.”

As for LDPE, import sellers approached the market mostly with rollovers, counting on a lack of European and Iranian suppliers in the post-Eid week. Yet, they admitted facing resistance from their customers, with a $30/ton drop from the domestic producer, Petkim, adding to the weaker scene. Saudi sources admitted receiving bids below $1200/ton CIF.

Low-end US K67 offers weigh on PVC market

Despite earlier hopes about seasonality, PVC demand stayed poor given sharply lower upstream costs across the board, US tariffs on dozens of trade partners, and cash constraints at home. US PVC offers moved down further on the low end to touch $710/ton CIF amid supply pressure, with bids as low as $700/ton causing jitters among suppliers of other origins. Rollover attempts from European producers faced resistance amid lower April ethylene contracts in the region and a freefall in the energy complex. Moreover, some buyers said they already have material on the way.

A polymer trader opined, “We do not expect PVC to take a big hit from the trade war, as China is not a major buyer of American origin. PE will be affected more visibly.” According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, China was the top buyer of US PE with more than 2 million tons in 2024, while the country imported about 100,000 tons of PVC from the USA, ranking eighth among the largest buyers. Still, some other players expect to see more US PVC volumes in Türkiye in the coming term, suggesting that prices may break below the $700/ton CIF threshold if costs sustain a downtrend. Nonetheless, sellers expect already low margins to keep price cuts in check while maintaining their hopes for a cautious recovery in demand as Q2 wears on.

Import PET dragged down by steeply lower upstream

Tracking bearish sentiment in Asia’s PET markets, Chinese import PET bottle prices fell below the $950/ton CIF Türkiye mark this week. Similarly, Malaysian PET textile chip prices plunged by $50/ton from the pre-holiday week, with the low end hitting as low as $850/ton. These notable drops were fueled by sharp declines in PTA, PX, and MEG prices across Asia. Some players commented that the recent slump in import PET markets may stimulate buying interest ahead of the high season.

PS and ABS offers track styrene lower

Initial post-Eid import PS and ABS offers were reported with some decreases, pressured by sharply falling spot styrene prices in Asia and lower April monomer contracts in Europe. In response, a trader revised his South Korean PS and ABS offers down by $10–40/ton compared to the pre-Eid week. Additionally, initial PS offers from Europe emerged €100/ton lower than March, as sellers faced mounting pressure due to a stronger €/USD parity. ABS offers from the region also saw a €30/ton drop for April.

Players: Trade conflict may boost Türkiye’s exports   

Polymer markets have been weak following the holiday, weighed down by global uncertainties and falling costs. However, some participants believe the ongoing global trade war could present medium-term opportunities for Türkiye. The sharp tariff increases by various countries will raise costs and strain manufacturing activity in certain regions, which may provide an upper hand to Turkish exporters in their effort to compete across the board.

While the US imposed steep tariffs on many countries, the relatively moderate 10% import duty on Türkiye could enhance the presence of manufacturers in foreign markets in the long run. At the same time, the risk of retaliatory tariffs targeting US exports may lead to a redirection of raw materials, such as PE and PVC, to Türkiye or Latin American countries, thereby increasing supply in these regions.

Meanwhile, potential shifts in global supply flows amid this volatile environment may push suppliers from Iran, the Middle East, and South Korea to fill gaps in markets beyond Türkiye, especially if netback levels remain low. A trader opined, “Middle Eastern suppliers may focus on Europe more while Iranians may turn to China if tensions do not ease.”

One key factor to monitor in this equation will be the outcome of ongoing negotiations aimed at easing tensions. In addition, several critical uncertainties remain: the effectiveness of possible stimulus measures by leading economies, potentially introduced under the shadow of recession fears, the economic fallout from a slowdown in global trade, its impact on the freight industry, and the extent of potential inflationary pressures.