Provisional duty update: Taiwan faces steep duties, S. Korea retains edge in EU’s ABS market

The European Commission’s anti-dumping investigation into ABS imports from South Korea and Taiwan has entered a crucial stage, following the disclosure of proposed provisional duties on July 18, 2025. While intended to counteract unfair pricing, early feedback from the market suggests that the proposed duties may provide little meaningful relief to European producers.

S. Korea holds commanding lead in EU ABS imports

According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, South Korea has consistently dominated ABS imports into the EU27 over the past two decades. South Korea’s market share gradually increased in the past three years as it surged to 68% in 2024—translating to around 180,000 tons—up from 62% in 2023 and 58% in 2022. Over the same period, Taiwan’s share declined, with a 14% share in 2024 (around 37,000 tons), marking a decline from 18% in 2023 and 24% in 2022.

Historical data from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard underscore Europe’s dependence on imports as the EU27 mostly imported more ABS than its exports, disregarding a few years of even trade or vice versa. A sustained reliance on competitively priced Asian supplies has long cushioned the bloc’s converters from higher regional costs.

Disappointment over proposed duties

The pre-disclosure of provisional duties revealed relatively modest rates for key South Korean producers—LG Chem (3.7%), Lotte Chemical (5.8%), and Kumho Petrochemical (4.3%). Meanwhile, Taiwan’s leading exporters faced steeper measures, with Formosa Chemicals slapped with a 21.7% duty and Chimei Corporation/GPPC assigned 10.8%.

Market players were underwhelmed. “The measures are disappointing. The most aggressive exporters received the lowest duties, which won’t offer much support to EU suppliers,” a source commented. Another buyer noted, “Even with duties, Asian offers may remain cheaper than European ones given relatively more competitive upstream figures. The gap will persist.”

Market in limbo as clarity delayed

While the pre-disclosure took place on 18 July 2025, provisional measures are now expected on 19 August 2025. The deadline for comments on the provisional measures is 2 September 2025, and definitive measures are set to be imposed on 18 February 2026.

Importers are in a holding pattern, with no new offers for Asian ABS reported in July. Buyers said they were evaluating local material instead, while many remained sufficiently covered and refrained from restocking amid weak demand.

“The market’s reaction will depend on how the duties are implemented,” said one buyer, who remained cautious. Others echoed that sentiment, pointing to a lack of signs suggesting any near-term recovery.

Demand remains the weakest link

European ABS demand continues to languish, dragged down by lackluster consumption across automotive, electronics, and household appliance sectors. Players see little incentive for active replenishment, especially in light of bearish end-user markets and flat conversion margins.

Sentiment for the remainder of 2025 remains gloomy, as high costs, weak macroeconomic conditions, and cautious purchasing patterns cloud the outlook. “The structural demand weakness is a bigger problem than unfair imports right now,” a trader in Northern Europe remarked.

Could measures shift trade flows?

Should current provisional duties take effect as expected on August 19, and if they are followed by definitive measures in February 2026, a gradual realignment of sourcing patterns could occur. Yet, given the low levels of the duties proposed on S. Korea, particularly on the major players, the impact may be muted.

“The duties might redirect some Taiwanese volumes away from the EU given the steeper rates for the EU’s second-largest ABS supplier, but South Korea is likely to maintain its grip if freight rates remain manageable,” said a trader.

Still, market dynamics could shift if S. Korean duties are raised at a later stage. “Should S. Korean suppliers face higher tariffs in the final determination, their cost advantage would erode, opening the door for alternative sources to gain ground,” the trader added.

If Taiwanese players scale back exports, and S. Korean competitiveness is curtailed, the resulting supply gap may create room for other Asian exporters—or even European producers—to step in. However, this would only be feasible if the price gap between European and South Korean material narrows significantly.

In Western Europe, the gap between spot prices on an FD NWE basis and South Korean ABS natural injection prices on a DDP basis has ranged between €120-390/ton since the beginning of 2025.

A delicate balance between protection and affordability

The EU’s action reflects a broader effort to protect its chemical industry from aggressive external pricing and geopolitical headwinds. However, trade measures alone may fail to address the core challenges threatening the future of Europe’s chemical sector, considering systemic demand weakness and structural cost disadvantages of local production.

For now, attention remains focused on Brussels, where industry players are calling for clear guidance and greater transparency. Still, there is a cautious understanding that tariffs—particularly if applied unevenly—are no cure-all for the sector’s deeper challenges.

Adding to the EU chemical sector’s strain, U.S. President Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports from August 1. The move risks disrupting exports and intensifying trade tensions. For European manufacturers already grappling with high costs, it may further erode competitiveness and curb resin demand.