Record Q1 for US PVC: Will trade barriers reverse the momentum for the rest of 2025?

The US PVC industry is facing a shifting global trade landscape as multiple key export markets either close their doors or signal a significant retreat. While US PVC exports hit an all-time Q1 high in 2025, this record masks serious setbacks in strategic destinations.

The EU and India have already sharply reduced PVC imports from the US, with new tariff barriers effectively shutting the door. Brazil, one of the top 10 export markets, has just raised its antidumping duty from 8.2% to 43.7%, curbing near-term potential. Meanwhile, China may remain accessible through Q3 thanks to a trade truce, but Q4 flows are increasingly uncertain while Mexico – traditionally the second largest buyer – has just recently launched an antidumping investigation on US PVC, risking further flow for the rest of the year.
In this context, US producers will need to re-evaluate their global strategy, as around 40% of 2024 PVC exports were directed to countries that are now off-limits or in decline.

EU and India: Protectionism and unresolved trade cases erase growth

In 2024, the EU accounted for just over 4% of total US PVC exports. However, Q1 2025 exports to the bloc plummeted by 73% year-on-year, collapsing its market share from nearly 8% in Q1 2024 to under 2% this year. The sharp drop was a reflection of the definitive antidumping duties applied by the EU at the start of the year. The trade war Trump kicked off against the EU after taking over the office earlier in the year was also followed by the EU’s announcement to include PVC in its retaliatory tariff list, unlike PE . Possibly taking effect as of July 9, this is expected to effectively block further trade.

India, previously one of the fastest-growing buyers of US PVC as the world’s largest PVC buyer, saw a 90% plunge in Q1 2025 versus the same period last year. From commanding over 8% of Q1 2023 exports, India’s share fell below 1%, amid prolonged delays in an antidumping decision that has discouraged further imports.

Brazil and China: One just closed, the other may follow

Brazil had been steadily rising in the US PVC export matrix, with Q1 2025 volumes up 35% compared to the prior year. This gain pushed Brazil’s share to nearly 6% in Q1. However, this growth is expected to reverse sharply in the coming months, as Brazil’s antidumping duty hike to 43.7% severely undermines US competitiveness.

China’s Q1 imports of US PVC, meanwhile, edged up 15% from the previous year, contributing just under 5% to total Q1 exports. However, that growth may not be sustainable: a temporary trade truce could keep volumes afloat until late summer, but resumed tariffs or regulatory shifts in Q4 could sharply reduce flows.

Türkiye and Vietnam: Shine out as best alternative destinations

Türkiye has emerged as a major growth driver, with Q1 2025 imports surging 62% year-on-year, raising its market share to nearly 13% from 9% last year. This makes Türkiye the second-largest buyer of US PVC so far in 2025, narrowing the gap with Canada, and surpassing Mexico, the top two buyers. From Türkiye’s import perspective, the country also saw record high PVC imports from the US in Q1, marking a 62% increase year-over-year.

The ASEAN region, largely Vietnam, also posted significant growth, with Q1 volumes tripling compared to the same period in 2024. Its market share more than doubled to over 10%, indicating shifting sourcing preferences.

North America: Canada rebounds, but Mexico’s state falters

Canada remained the top export partner, with Q1 2025 volumes jumping 72% year-on-year. Its share of US exports rose to nearly 19%, up from 13% a year earlier. The reciprocal tariffs applied by Canada on US goods do not appear to have taken a hit on US PVC yet.

Mexico, however, has shown a slight dip of 3%, falling to the 4th place. This small decrease might have stemmed from the slowdown ahead of an antidumping investigation launched by Mexico into imports of PVC suspension resin from the United States on April 28. How long this probe will last and to what extent duties will be applied is not clear yet; however, it will definitely put a cap on the export flow into the second-largest buyer.

Mounting challenges cloud future of US PVC exports

Despite operating rate reductions to 74–85% in Q1, according to the data from ACC, US PVC producers managed to post record Q1 export figures. However, the sustainability of this performance is now in question.

With less than half of 2024 exports tied to countries now retreating from US supply—such as the EU, India, Brazil, and soon China and possibly Mexico—the challenge is not just finding new markets but finding enough of them. Türkiye and Vietnam have stepped up, but their capacity to absorb additional volumes is uncertain. Meanwhile, global demand remains underwhelming, and competition is intensifying with rising exports from China .

Looking ahead, US producers will likely maintain aggressive pricing strategies in export markets to defend share, while keeping domestic operating rates constrained at and under 80%. US PVC producers will depend on tactical market shifts, flexibility in distribution, and navigating an increasingly protectionist landscape that threatens to reshape global PVC trade flows.