SE Asia’s import PVC market completes post-war price reset; focus shifts to $600 threshold

Southeast Asia’s import PVC market has completed a full post-war price reversal, with import prices falling back to levels last seen in early February after nearly three months of continuous declines. According to the ChemOrbis Price Index, several deals for Chinese ethylene-based K67 resin were concluded at around $610/ton CIF Vietnam, cash this week, while US-origin material was reported at $630-640/ton CIF, bringing the market within striking distance of the psychologically important $600/ton threshold.

The latest downturn means that the region has not only surrendered all of the premium created by the Middle East conflict earlier this year, but has also returned to the low levels seen before the war-driven rally began. With demand remaining subdued across Asia and export competition intensifying, players are increasingly debating whether PVC prices could soon fall below $600/ton for the first time in several months.

Market completes a remarkable round trip

The latest weakness marks the final chapter of one of the sharpest price cycles seen in recent years.

Southeast Asia’s import PVC K67 market had bottomed out in mid-December 2025 at $560-630/ton CIF, the lowest level since November 2008. Prices then entered 2026 on a gradual recovery path, reaching $650-730/ton during the week beginning February 23, immediately before geopolitical tensions erupted in the Middle East.

The outbreak of the conflict triggered widespread concerns over feedstock availability, shipping disruptions, and freight costs, sending PVC prices soaring. By the week beginning March 23, import prices had climbed to $990-1100/ton CIF, representing a roughly 51% increase in weekly average prices within a single month and lifting the market to its highest level since mid-2022.

Since that peak, however, the market has steadily unwound. Over the past three months, easing freight costs, collapsing upstream energy markets, comfortable regional supply, and persistently weak demand have driven prices back to where they stood before the rally began, effectively erasing the entire war premium.

Chinese and US offers continue to set fresh lows

Chinese exporters extended their aggressive pricing strategy this week, with several Vietnamese buyers confirming transactions around $610/ton CIF Vietnam for ethylene-based K67 material.

"Some Chinese PVC has already been concluded at around $610/ton CIF this week. It looks increasingly likely that prices will break below $600/ton soon. Demand remains weak, so most buyers prefer to wait," a Vietnamese trader said.

US-origin material also became increasingly competitive, with offers reported at $630-640/ton CIF Vietnam.

"US K67 has already reached around $630/ton CIF. Demand is still very poor, and most market participants remain in wait-and-see mode," another Vietnamese trader commented.

Weak export demand keeps pressure on Chinese suppliers

Chinese producers continue to face mounting challenges both at home and abroad.

A source from a Chinese producer said the domestic market remains trapped in the traditional seasonal slowdown, while the prolonged weakness in the country’s property sector continues to suppress downstream PVC consumption. Overseas demand has also deteriorated noticeably.

"India is currently in its monsoon season, resulting in weak demand. Buyers are also waiting for greater clarity on import tariff policies, reducing their purchasing activity. Without India, most exporters are now concentrating on Southeast Asia," he said.

Another Chinese producer’s source echoed the bearish outlook, noting that oversupply and elevated inventories continue to pressure prices. "Prices fell further this week as supply remains abundant and inventories are still high. However, producers’ margins have become extremely thin, so operating rates may be reduced in the near future. Domestic and export demand are both weak, and export volumes have started to decline. The market is likely to remain soft in the short term, although further downside may be limited because current prices are already very low."

Will $600 become the next battleground?

With buyers continuing to purchase only when immediate needs arise, few market participants see any catalyst capable of supporting a meaningful recovery in the near term. Instead, attention has shifted toward whether the market will decisively break below the $600/ton CIF threshold, a level that could become the next major psychological benchmark for Southeast Asia’s import PVC market.