SE Asia’s war premium scoreboard: PVC nears normalization as PP, PET and LDPE remain inflated

According to ChemOrbis Price Index data, Southeast Asia’s import polymer markets have spent the past several weeks unwinding the sharp gains triggered by the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Yet the pace of correction has varied significantly across products, creating a sharply diverging picture by mid-June.

While import PVC K67 has moved closest to its pre-war levels, most other major polymers continue to trade with sizable premiums compared with the week starting February 23, which is taken as the pre-war benchmark. The data suggest that the wartime rally has been only partially erased in several markets, despite weak demand, sufficient supply and growing pressure from competitively priced cargoes, particularly from China.

PVC shows the deepest normalization

Import PVC K67 stands out as the product that has come closest to fully erasing its war-driven gains. Prices surged by a cumulative 51% from the pre-war week to their peak in the week starting March 23, when the index reached its highest level since mid-2022.

Since then, however, PVC has corrected by 28% from the peak. By mid-June, prices were only 9% above pre-war levels, making PVC the clearest example of normalization among Southeast Asian import polymer markets.

This sharper correction reflects the depth of bearish pressure across Asia’s PVC chain. Sluggish demand, ample regional availability and aggressive pricing competition among Northeast Asian suppliers have steadily pulled offers lower. Recent steep benchmark cuts from a major Taiwanese producer also reset buyer expectations across Asia, reinforcing the view that PVC has largely shed its war premium.

PET bottle, PP and LDPE still carry the largest premiums

At the other end of the spectrum, PET bottle, homo-PP and LDPE film continue to show much wider gaps versus pre-war levels.

Import PET bottle prices rose by 47% from the pre-war week to their late-April peak, also hitting their highest levels since mid-2022. However, the subsequent correction has been limited to only 7% from the peak. As a result, PET bottle remains 36% above pre-war levels by mid-June, indicating that the market has given back only a small portion of its war-led gains.

Homo-PP raffia and injection show an even larger remaining premium. Prices jumped by 60% from the pre-war benchmark to their mid-April peak, reaching a four-year high. Although the market has fallen by 12% since then, current levels remain 40% above pre-war values.

LDPE film follows a similar pattern. After climbing by 58% to a four-year high in mid-April, prices have corrected by 12% from the peak, leaving the market still 40% above pre-war levels. This places LDPE alongside homo-PP as one of the products still carrying the heaviest war premium in Southeast Asia’s import polymer complex.

HDPE, LLDPE, ABS and PS sit in the middle

Other products have corrected more visibly than PET, PP and LDPE, but still remain well above their pre-war benchmarks.

Import HDPE and LLDPE film prices rose by 59% from the pre-war week to their early-April peak, the highest level since November 2014. Since then, prices have fallen by 19%, but they are still 29-30% higher than pre-war levels.

Recent pressure from aggressive Chinese pricing has pushed LLDPE lower in Vietnam and elsewhere in Southeast Asia, but ChemOrbis data suggest that further downside may still be needed for prices to better reflect weak demand and comfortable supply.

ABS injection also sits in this middle group. Prices surged by 58% to a four-year high toward late March, before retreating by 18% from the peak. Even after this correction, ABS remains 29% above pre-war levels.

GPPS injection, meanwhile, has given back more of its gains than several other styrenics and olefins markets, but not enough to return to pre-war territory. Import GPPS prices climbed by 50% to a four-year high in early April, then fell by 17% from the peak. By mid-June, they still carried a 25% premium over pre-war levels.

Correction has been broad, but not enough to erase the war premium

The data point to a clear hierarchy across Southeast Asia’s import polymer markets. PVC has normalized the most, with its remaining premium narrowing to single digits. GPPS, ABS, HDPE and LLDPE have seen meaningful corrections, but remain around 25-30% above pre-war levels. PET bottle, homo-PP and LDPE film remain the most inflated, still carrying premiums of 36-40%.



This uneven correction suggests that the region’s polymer markets are no longer moving as a single war-driven bloc. Instead, product-specific fundamentals have taken the lead. Markets facing intense supplier competition, heavy inventories and aggressive Chinese export pricing have corrected faster. Others, where the pullback has been slower or supply-side support has remained stronger, continue to trade far above their late-February levels.

For buyers, the key question is whether the remaining premiums are sustainable. Demand across Southeast Asia remains sluggish, converters are largely buying hand-to-mouth, and expectations for further declines persist in several markets. Unless crude oil and feedstock costs stage another sustained rally, the gap between current prices and pre-war levels may keep downward pressure alive through the second half of June.