SEA PE markets sink further on weak demand; US LLDPE hits $800 CIF Vietnam

Southeast Asia’s PE markets started October on a bearish note, with prices drifting further down amid fragile demand and persistent oversupply. Market sentiment remained weak, with buyers sticking to minimal replenishment despite already multi-year low levels. Competitive offers from US and Middle Eastern suppliers continued to weigh on the region, pulling both LDPE and LLDPE film down, while HDPE showed only selective firmness in limited markets.

LDPE film extends losses; US hits $1000 mark

By the end of the week ending October 3, LDPE film offers from the US stood at $1000/ton CIF Vietnam, cash, the lowest level since early January 2024, according to ChemOrbis Price Index. Some players noted that actual deals were finalized even lower, as sellers granted additional discounts in the face of sluggish demand.

A Vietnamese trader said, “We received US LDPE offers at $1000/ton, with some sellers willing to go below that. Low-end cargoes can be as much as $50-80/ton cheaper than higher-end ones, but quality is often inconsistent, sometimes barely different from off-grade.”

LLDPE crashes to new lows; $800-820 in Vietnam

Among film grades, LLDPE remained under the heaviest pressure. Its weekly average fell further from more than five year lows, with US cargoes anchoring the bottom end.

Fresh offers at the start of this week underscored the downtrend: US LLDPE film was quoted at $800-820/ton CIF Vietnam, cash, down by $50-60/ton from last week.

A Vietnamese converter commented, “Demand isn’t very good. Prices moved lower, but demand couldn’t improve. We don’t dare to replenish much as downstream orders are weak. It’s not about prices anymore, it’s about demand. Only if prices fall below $750/ton might we consider building stocks, since that should be the floor.”

HDPE loses ground despite earlier firmness

Unlike LDPE and LLDPE, HDPE had managed to stay relatively steady last week on selective tightness in Vietnam and Malaysia. But fresh offers indicated renewed weakness. Saudi origin HDPE film was offered at $850/ton CIF Vietnam, cash on Monday, reflecting a $50/ton drop from last week.

Traders said local Vietnamese offers were still capped by Long Son’s competitive pricing strategy, which has created wide ranges between converter and trader levels. “Because of Long Son, local prices couldn’t increase even though the exchange rate is high,” one Vietnamese source explained.

Cautious optimism vs. oversupply reality

Some players suggested prices may be approaching a bottom, pointing to multi-year lows and the possibility of seasonal restocking later in Q4. “Prices might recover slightly toward the year end,” a distributor said.

However, most players remain cautious, citing the persistent supply overhang and weak end-user demand. A Malaysian converter admitted he did not even inquire about offers, as the market was too slow to justify new purchases. An Indonesian converter added, “We’re running normally, but still struggling to secure downstream orders. End-user demand is weaker than last year because of global uncertainties.”