SEA’s LLDPE film loses long-held premium over HDPE amid aggressive US offers

According to data from ChemOrbis Price Index, Southeast Asia’s import LLDPE film market has lost its long-held premium over HDPE film for the first time since July 2024, as LLDPE prices have slumped more sharply under mounting regional and import pressure.

Both LLDPE and HDPE film weekly averages stood at $885/ton CIF SEA, cash in the week ending October 10, converging at their lowest levels in more than five years.

Back in May, LLDPE film held a premium of around $80/ton over HDPE film, the largest gap recorded in around three years. But that margin has now disappeared, reflecting LLDPE’s deeper losses since September amid aggressive offers, particularly from US suppliers, and persistently weak demand.

A regional trader commented, “US-origin LLDPE film is putting significant pressure on the market. Competition has intensified, and sellers are turning more aggressive to move volumes.”



LLDPE faces heavier losses amid expanding supply

LLDPE film prices have fallen more than 15% from their yearly peak of $1045/ton in March, while HDPE film, which hit its highest point of $985/ton in February, has declined by around 10% over the same period.

Ample supply and sluggish downstream demand have weighed more heavily on LLDPE. US-origin cargoes were particularly weak, with deals heard as low as $800/ton, down by up to $50/ton from last week. A Malaysian converter who bought US LLDPE film at $830/ton CIF, cash said, “The market is very quiet due to holidays and poor demand. Prices may fall further.”

While average prices are now at par, LLDPE film has even fallen below HDPE at the low end of the market, with this week’s LLDPE deals heard at $800/ton versus $840/ton for HDPE. This indicates that LLDPE has not only lost its premium but is now trading at a discount in some cases.

Buyers remain cautious despite sharp declines

Converters across Southeast Asia continue to avoid restocking despite lower prices, citing still-poor consumption and expectations of further weakness. “Demand is really bad. Even though prices are down, there’s no sign of a rebound,” a Vietnamese converter said.

A Singapore-based trader added, “It’s hard to see any upside before year-end. Unless demand picks up or supply tightens, LLDPE could stay under heavy pressure for a while.”