Spot LDPE tests €1700/ton FD in Italy, W. Europe as supply squeeze deepens

Spot LDPE prices in Italy and across Western Europe are testing the €1700/ton FD threshold, as mounting supply constraints and aggressive seller strategies continue to push the market into uncharted territory. This pushed prices to their highest level since July-August 2022.

Market participants reported that traders have already implemented increases of up to €500/ton on prompt material, rapidly clearing available stocks. Fresh price lists are now being revised on a near-daily basis, reflecting the extreme volatility and limited visibility in the market.

Supply vacuum widens with imports largely absent

The supply side remains severely constrained. Although the US is the main supplier to the EU27, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt and South Korea together accounted for more than 40% of the bloc’s imports in 2025. All of these regions have faced major disruptions: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively constrained, while ongoing strikes targeting key oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf have driven crude and feedstock costs sharply higher— with Brent crude nearing $115/bbl at the time of writing—further tightening import availability across the value chain.

No fresh offers have been reported from South Korea and the Middle East, while US suppliers are targeting increases of around $300/ton for May-June deliveries amid ongoing logistical delays.

Regional LDPE supply has also been limited due to shutdowns, lower operating rates, and force majeure declarations. Orlen declared force majeure on LDPE supply from Plock in early March. LyondellBasell also declared force majeure on certain polyolefin obligations in Europe due to escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict.

Sellers hold back volumes, shorten validity

Producers and distributors have tightened their sales strategies, with many closing order books or issuing offers with very short validity periods. In some cases, sellers are leaving prices open, citing the risk of further intra-day revisions amid extreme volatility and poor visibility.

Surcharges have added another layer of complexity. Borealis revised existing sales terms for March deliveries, driven by escalating feedstock and variable input costs linked mainly to naphtha and LPG. Other producers similarly implemented surcharges, bringing cumulative spot hikes to €400-500/ton for March. In the contract segment, a €200/ton surcharge was applied in addition to the ethylene rise, further amplifying the overall upward pressure.

Spot LDPE prices have recorded 44% hikes from late February levels, according to ChemOrbis Price Index.

Panic buying emerges amid dwindling stocks

On the demand side, activity has picked up as converters with low inventories rush to secure material. Buyers reported paying increases of €100-200/ton earlier in March, with larger hikes emerging more recently. Some players are actively rebuilding stocks ahead of expected April increases, while others warn that securing prompt volumes is becoming increasingly difficult.

Market braces for fresh spikes into April

Market expectations remain firmly bullish. Several players anticipate LDPE prices approaching or exceeding €2000/ton by the end of the month, with further gains likely in April and May. Ongoing logistical disruptions, container shortages, and uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern supply routes continue to cloud the outlook, suggesting that tightness may persist in the near and medium term. Meanwhile, the next ethylene contract is expected to settle with around €200/ton increases.