Stable May PVC offers from Taiwan fail to dispel bearish sentiment in Asia

May PVC offers from a major Taiwanese producer have remained stable, but this has done little to stem the downtrend in key Asian markets such as China, Southeast Asia, and India. The overall market sentiment continues to be cautious, with buyers hesitant to stock up due to lingering uncertainties and weak demand, driven by trade tensions and seasonal weather shifts. This ongoing weakness in demand is keeping downward pressure on PVC markets across the region.

Import prices across region at 5-year lows

The Taiwanese major announced its benchmark offers for May shipments last week, keeping prices stable for most Asian buyers. The producer’s offers remained at $700/ton CIF China/India and at $660/ton FOB Taiwan. Meanwhile, specific FOB Taiwan offers to Southeast Asian countries saw a modest increase of $10/ton from April, standing at $660/ton for Vietnam and $665/ton for other Southeast Asian destinations.

According to market sources, the announcement caught many players by surprise, as expectations were widely skewed about further reductions amid persistently sluggish demand. A Vietnamese trader remarked, “Taiwan offers remain stable, but most players were anticipating more drops. Demand is moderate, and with the rainy season approaching, it’s likely to weaken further.”

This unexpected stability led many other suppliers to diverge from the Taiwanese major’s move, opting instead for slight decreases. Consequently, import offers were assessed as either stable or $10/ton lower in China, India, and Southeast Asia during the week ending April 25. ChemOrbis Price Index illustrates that the weekly average of import prices across these key markets hit their lowest levels since mid-May 2020, further underscoring the market’s fragility.



Demand weakness remains at the forefront

Demand across the region remains notably weak, with buyers largely staying on the sidelines and minimizing purchases. The primary drivers behind this demand sluggishness are ongoing trade tensions, particularly the tariff conflict between China and the US, and the arrival of the rainy season in several Southeast Asian countries.

The US-China trade war has severely impacted China’s export-driven manufacturers, particularly those involved in flooring products, leading to reduced orders and lower demand from converters. A trader in Longkou explained, “Downstream demand is weakening due to the trade war. High tariffs have stopped new orders, significantly reducing demand from converters.” Similarly, an Indonesian converter noted, “US tariffs have significantly impacted demand, leading to a drop in offers this week.”

In India, demand remains weak despite rapid sales of new allocations from the Taiwanese producer. Buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to subdued purchasing power. Weak demand for imported PVC persists, compounded by concerns over sufficient domestic supply.

Further weakness is expected due to the rainy season, which has already affected Southeast Asian markets like Thailand, southern Vietnam, and Malaysia’s west coast. Rain traditionally slows construction and infrastructure activities, key drivers of PVC demand, resulting in further market pessimism. A Thai converter stated, “Demand is faltering due to the rainy season. We believe prices will decline, so we prefer to buy only what’s needed.”

Policy uncertainties cloud the outlook

Looking ahead, policy-driven developments are likely to weigh heavily on the market. Many players anticipate that the newly imposed US tariffs could lead to a wave of shutdowns or production cuts at downstream plants in China, as orders from the US dry up. This could exacerbate domestic inventory buildups, further dampening demand and prompting Chinese PVC exporters to lower their offers to other regional markets.

A trader based in Mumbai remarked, “Indian demand is too weak, as there is an expectation that Chinese sellers may reduce prices further in response to building domestic inventories.”

Moreover, India’s pending anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on imported PVC are foreseen to further dampen buying interest. Local market participants widely believe that the ADDs will be implemented shortly, following the expiration of a court-ordered stay that delayed the measure. Should the duties come into effect, import volumes into India may decline further, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market landscape.