Stats: China’s Q3 PE imports fall to lowest since 2022

According to ChemOrbis Stat Wizard, China’s September PE imports rebounded from August’s lull, while exports slipped to a three-month low. However, the quarterly data showed a stark contrast, with imports slumping to their lowest level since Q2 2022 and exports surging to an all-time high. The figures reflected China’s ongoing structural transition toward higher self-sufficiency and a growing export footprint amid subdued domestic demand and oversupply pressures.

September: Imports rebound; exports ease after 2 months

In September, China’s PE imports climbed more than 7% month-on-month and around 10% year-on-year, while exports fell 14% from August but still registered a sharp 64% increase compared to the same month in 2024.

The modest rebound in imports partly reflected sentiment tied to the traditional “Golden September” peak season for downstream manufacturing. However, players emphasized that September import statistics mainly represent cargoes booked in earlier months, given typical shipping lead times of one to two months. Many converters and traders had secured September-arrival cargoes in anticipation of stronger seasonal demand, though the actual improvement proved modest amid a fragile economy and weak end-user orders.

In value terms, China imported PE worth roughly $1.09 billion in September, while exports totaled over $114 million. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea remained the top three suppliers, accounting for 21%, 13%, and 11% of total import value, respectively. The US, China’s top supplier during February-April this year, continued to lag behind and was absent from the top five suppliers’ list.

Q3: Imports sink to 13-quarter low; exports break all records

For the third quarter of 2025, China’s PE imports fell to their lowest level since Q2 2022, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline after reaching a 15-quarter high in Q4 2024. Total import volume was down more than 7% from Q2 and over 15% from a year earlier. The sustained drop underscored persistently weak demand from Chinese buyers during the year, as sluggish downstream consumption and high domestic inventories discouraged restocking.

China’s expanding local PE capacity has somewhat reduced reliance on imported materials. Several new plants came online this year, boosting domestic supply and intensifying price competition. The combination of a supply glut and prolonged bearishness in demand has pressured Q3 import volumes to multi-year lows, reflecting the structural shift in China’s PE market dynamics.

Conversely, PE exports hit an all-time high in Q3, surging 7% from the previous quarter and 67% year-on-year. The remarkable increase came as Chinese exporters ramped up PE outflows to ease mounting oversupply pressures at home. According to ChemOrbis Supply Wizard, nearly 6 million tons/year of new PE capacity were commissioned during the first nine months of 2025, prompting suppliers to channel excess output to overseas markets. Despite weak global demand, aggressive pricing strategies helped Chinese suppliers expand their export footprint across Southeast Asia, South Asia, and beyond.

In value terms, Q3 imports totaled around $3.27 billion, while exports were valued at approximately $363 million.

Q3 sees substantial losses in US’s market share

The composition of China’s PE suppliers also shifted notably in Q3. The UAE topped the list, capturing 18% of market share. The country was followed by Saudi Arabia (15%) and Iran (10%).

By contrast, the US saw its market share drop sharply. After ranking third in Q2 with a 13% share, the country fell to sixth place in Q3, holding only 8%. The steep decline was largely driven by escalating trade frictions and uncertainty surrounding China-US trade relations, which disrupted shipment flows and eroded buyer confidence.

Although import volumes from the US showed gradual recovery since July, they remained well below pre-tariff levels, suggesting that tariff risks have continued to weigh heavily on US exporters’ share in the Chinese market.