Taiwanese major’s February hike ratifies Asian PVC rally ahead of China tax shift

The Asian PVC market has transitioned from a period of stagnation into a strategic uptrend. This week’s $40/ton February hike by a major Taiwanese producer has effectively locked in a new regional price floor, transforming what began as a policy-driven rebound into a confirmed uptrend.

While China’s planned abolition of the 13% VAT export tax rebate from April 1 has been the original catalyst, the Taiwanese producer’s move is widely seen as the first formal validation by a regional benchmark seller that the market has shifted into a higher pricing regime.

According to ChemOrbis Price Index data, the recovery is now clearly measurable. Weekly average PVC K67 prices CIF India have climbed 7% since mid-December to reach $665/ton, a two-month high, after bottoming out at their lowest level in around 17 years. In China, CIF prices have gained 6% since late 2025 to $635/ton, marking a three-month high, while CIF SEA prices are up 8% from a 17-year low recorded about a month ago.

Taiwan move reframes market psychology

By lifting February offers to $680/ton CIF India and China, the Taiwanese producer has moved beyond sentiment-setting and into price anchoring, traders said. “This is no longer just about rushing cargoes before April. Taiwan has effectively told the market where the new floor is,” a regional trader commented.

The announcement has emboldened other suppliers. South Korean K67 offers to India have reportedly surfaced as high as $690/ton CIF, while a Qatari cargo is believed to have been concluded at $670/ton CIF India, reflecting a broader willingness among sellers to test higher levels.

China supply dynamics add to tightening tone

On the supply side, China’s export window ahead of April continues to absorb excess capacity, even as domestic demand remains sluggish. Market talk of a late-February shutdown at a Tianjin-based producer, with 400,000 tons/year of PVC capacity, has added another layer of support, reinforcing perceptions that near-term availability could tighten further. The producer’s caustic soda unit will reportedly be shut first, while the PVC unit may continue briefly to consume existing VCM inventory. Only minimum personnel will be retained for maintenance, with no current schedule for a restart.

In southern China, producer sources reported firmer physical offers tracking stronger futures. With exporters eager to maximize shipments while the rebate remains in place, first-quarter export volumes are expected to stay elevated, though many caution that the landscape will change materially after April.

Strategic buying intensifies across India, SEA

India remains the epicenter of the rally. Import K67 prices have pushed toward the $680-690/ton CIF range, prompting domestic producers to raise prices by INR2,000/ton this week. Landed import costs are now estimated at INR69,500-71,000/ton, narrowing the gap with domestic material and reinforcing the upward adjustment cycle.

“The floor has definitely shifted,” noted a PVC trader based in Mumbai. “We saw prices hitting decade-lows just a few weeks ago, but that cycle is clearly behind us now.”

Another Mumbai-based trader emphasized the strategic nature of current buying. “It’s no longer just about filling immediate gaps. People are buying to average out costs before the April tax barrier makes everything more expensive.”

In Southeast Asia, sentiment has turned cautiously firm. Import prices are hovering near multi-month highs, with Vietnam seeing fresh offer hikes of $20-25/ton as Chinese sellers prioritize shipments tied to the pre-April window. While downstream demand has yet to show a decisive recovery, buyers across the region increasingly view current levels as transitional rather than peak pricing.

In the Philippines, a producer’s source said, “Demand has ticked upward following the regional benchmark hike.”