Turkish PE players await April offers in the midst of cautious demand and tight supply

As the turbulent month of March comes to an end, Türkiye’s PE market extended its sharp upward trajectory this week, driven by sparse import flows from the Middle East, force majeures, and elevated upstream costs. Both LDPE and LLDPE/HDPE grades surged further across import and domestic channels, with converters adopting a cautious stance post-holiday, mainly due to mixed signals from the conflict and the pause in the oil futures rally.

March: A turbulent month of logistic jitters and rocketing costs

Middle Eastern import price assessments reflected lingering supply constraints and ongoing war-related surcharges, with weekly hikes of $90–110/ton at the time of writing. US-origin PE continued to capitalize on the scarcity of competing cargoes for other origins, with some traders indicating prices as high as $1500/ton CIF for LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film, though confirmed transactions remained around $1400–1450/ton.

The market still lacked South Korean offers amid feedstock issues and naphtha-related production interruptions, while Uzbek volumes in the spot market remained short.

According to weekly average data from the ChemOrbis Index, Middle Eastern PE film prices have jumped by a total of $455–485/ton (43–52%) compared to a month ago, while US PE film soared by a massive $460–505/ton (44–55%) in the same period.

Local HDPE and LLDPE film rocket by almost 60% in four weeks

On the domestic front, Petkim issued an additional $150/ton hike for LDPE, pushing total March increases to $560/ton since the onset of the conflict. Since the geopolitical conflict broke out, the locally-held LDPE film market surged by $575/ton (48%) in total, while LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film jumped $640/ton (59%) amid low distributor stocks and revived demand for prompt supply.

Buyers turn relatively cautious after Eid al-Fitr break

Manufacturers adopted a more cautious approach in the post-holiday period, as they struggled to price their end-products amid sharply rising resin costs in recent weeks. The pause in oil’s rally, following mixed signals regarding the US-Iran conflict, alongside pending April PE offers, also contributed to a more measured market tone.

The outlook remains supported by global PE price increases, ongoing supply constraints, and uncertainty over Middle Eastern cargo flows due to surcharges and unclear ETAs. Even in the case of a ceasefire or partial resolution in the Middle East, analysts warn that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may take several months to normalize, keeping supply tight and costs elevated.

However, demand-side resistance and affordability concerns could temper the pace of further hikes, some participants noted, with buyers likely to maintain a selective, cautious stance until new offers emerge, finding paying extreme hikes risky for distant cargos.

“The market is clearly underpinned by much higher upstream costs from the pre-war period and prolonged logistical challenges. Yet, some converters who engaged in panic buying earlier in March were reported to be reselling raw materials, as margins were more attractive than converting them into finished goods. Difficulties in passing on rising costs and disrupted exports to the Middle Eastern markets continued to weigh on transaction volumes, prompting some converters to lower run rates,” a player commented.