Turkish PP and PE players assess the possibility of the market bottom
by Merve Madakbaşı - mmadakbasi@chemorbis.com
Polyolefin markets in Türkiye saw renewed price cuts in early November amid the year-end lull and easing upstream costs. As players tracked both global trends and local fundamentals, discussions emerged over whether prices might have already bottomed out at current multi-year lows. Sellers displayed cautious optimism after improved sales performance early in Q4, supported by trading during industrial events, while some converters were reportedly booking cargos for early 2026 arrival.
Producers were said to have started putting a floor under the market, as buyers confirmed dwindling availability of low-end Saudi PPH offers. Meanwhile, US LLDPE prices saw a $20/ton uptick on the low end, reflecting sellers’ growing reluctance to offer at previous lows.
PP: Sellers eye stabilization, eager to quit previous low-end offers
After starting November on a soft note, Saudi Arabian PP raffia and fibre prices held steady this week. The latest levels represented the lowest weekly averages in nearly five and a half years, according to ChemOrbis Price Wizard data. Players reported that Saudi Arabian and Russian offers on the low ends had settled around $830/ton for raffia and $860/ton for fibre, while sellers showed little inclination to grant further discounts. Some players even noted that PP raffia at $830/ton has already vanished, with a new low end forming at $840/ton CIF for the remaining November cargos.
A source from a Middle Eastern producer commented, “We have been free from stock pressure for homo PP grades thanks to active sales in October, while our allocations are limited for November. Although we have adopted a relatively firmer stance, there are still a few supportive factors for a rebound as global demand remains weak amid rising capacities.”
Falling Saudi Arabian PPH prices in China, which dropped to $750/ton CIF early this week, have had a limited impact on the current sentiment of market stabilization. Sellers in Türkiye noted that near-term supply pressure on regular producers has eased, while recent attempts to raise freight rates from FEA have also supported the market. At the same time, some buyers remained cautious, keeping their bids around $800/ton CIF Türkiye for year-end cargos, citing ample supply in Asia and uncertainties over the sustainability of recent freight hikes.
Meanwhile, news of an upcoming turnaround at an Egyptian PP producer lifted sentiment among sellers, as it could curb PPH volumes entering Türkiye. “This may help offset the usual year-end lull to some extent,” a converter observed.
PE: US LLDPE firms up on low end, Petkim leads LDPE
Middle Eastern PE producers entered the market with November reductions of up to $40/ton, reflecting anticipated pressure from aggressive US offers that have been in play since autumn. According to weekly averages from ChemOrbis Price Wizard, import Middle Eastern LDPE prices fell to a two-year low, while LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film hit their lowest levels since mid-2020. This, coupled with firmer US LLDPE C4 film prices on the low end, prompted players to assess whether the market might be starting to stabilize.
Several traders noted, “US LLDPE C4 film was selling in the low-$800s/ton CIF Türkiye just two weeks ago, but recent offers have climbed to $840–850/ton CIF. Suppliers have secured sizable sales across multiple markets, while rising US-to-Mediterranean freight rates have contributed to the upward adjustment.” Buyers also confirmed that their counterbids at $800–820/ton CIF were rejected starting last week.
On the other hand, the domestic producer, Petkim, issued a new price cut this week, offering competitive prompt LDPE cargoes. The move came amid mounting pressure from attractive European LDPE deals at the start of November. Meanwhile, the company reportedly aimed for monthly price increases in Europe.
Mixed global signals: New lows in Asia, bottom talks in Europe
While sentiment among polyolefin sellers has relatively stabilized, some participants suggest the market could see a slight recovery following buyers’ purchases, based on the view that prices may be approaching bottom levels. Reports that European sellers are also searching for a bottom partly support this sentiment. Additionally, India’s removal of the BIS requirement for imports has led to expectations that imported goods can now enter the country more easily; however, whether this will tighten supply to Türkiye remains uncertain.
At the same time, ongoing PP and PE declines driven by low crude oil prices and the supply-demand imbalance in Asia undermine the likelihood of a strong rebound in December. Considering these factors along with the year-end outlook for end-user demand, Turkish players do not foresee a significant price increase, expecting at most minor upward adjustments or rollovers on next deals.
Producers were said to have started putting a floor under the market, as buyers confirmed dwindling availability of low-end Saudi PPH offers. Meanwhile, US LLDPE prices saw a $20/ton uptick on the low end, reflecting sellers’ growing reluctance to offer at previous lows.
PP: Sellers eye stabilization, eager to quit previous low-end offers
After starting November on a soft note, Saudi Arabian PP raffia and fibre prices held steady this week. The latest levels represented the lowest weekly averages in nearly five and a half years, according to ChemOrbis Price Wizard data. Players reported that Saudi Arabian and Russian offers on the low ends had settled around $830/ton for raffia and $860/ton for fibre, while sellers showed little inclination to grant further discounts. Some players even noted that PP raffia at $830/ton has already vanished, with a new low end forming at $840/ton CIF for the remaining November cargos.
A source from a Middle Eastern producer commented, “We have been free from stock pressure for homo PP grades thanks to active sales in October, while our allocations are limited for November. Although we have adopted a relatively firmer stance, there are still a few supportive factors for a rebound as global demand remains weak amid rising capacities.”
Falling Saudi Arabian PPH prices in China, which dropped to $750/ton CIF early this week, have had a limited impact on the current sentiment of market stabilization. Sellers in Türkiye noted that near-term supply pressure on regular producers has eased, while recent attempts to raise freight rates from FEA have also supported the market. At the same time, some buyers remained cautious, keeping their bids around $800/ton CIF Türkiye for year-end cargos, citing ample supply in Asia and uncertainties over the sustainability of recent freight hikes.
Meanwhile, news of an upcoming turnaround at an Egyptian PP producer lifted sentiment among sellers, as it could curb PPH volumes entering Türkiye. “This may help offset the usual year-end lull to some extent,” a converter observed.
PE: US LLDPE firms up on low end, Petkim leads LDPE
Middle Eastern PE producers entered the market with November reductions of up to $40/ton, reflecting anticipated pressure from aggressive US offers that have been in play since autumn. According to weekly averages from ChemOrbis Price Wizard, import Middle Eastern LDPE prices fell to a two-year low, while LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film hit their lowest levels since mid-2020. This, coupled with firmer US LLDPE C4 film prices on the low end, prompted players to assess whether the market might be starting to stabilize.
Several traders noted, “US LLDPE C4 film was selling in the low-$800s/ton CIF Türkiye just two weeks ago, but recent offers have climbed to $840–850/ton CIF. Suppliers have secured sizable sales across multiple markets, while rising US-to-Mediterranean freight rates have contributed to the upward adjustment.” Buyers also confirmed that their counterbids at $800–820/ton CIF were rejected starting last week.
On the other hand, the domestic producer, Petkim, issued a new price cut this week, offering competitive prompt LDPE cargoes. The move came amid mounting pressure from attractive European LDPE deals at the start of November. Meanwhile, the company reportedly aimed for monthly price increases in Europe.
Mixed global signals: New lows in Asia, bottom talks in Europe
While sentiment among polyolefin sellers has relatively stabilized, some participants suggest the market could see a slight recovery following buyers’ purchases, based on the view that prices may be approaching bottom levels. Reports that European sellers are also searching for a bottom partly support this sentiment. Additionally, India’s removal of the BIS requirement for imports has led to expectations that imported goods can now enter the country more easily; however, whether this will tighten supply to Türkiye remains uncertain.
At the same time, ongoing PP and PE declines driven by low crude oil prices and the supply-demand imbalance in Asia undermine the likelihood of a strong rebound in December. Considering these factors along with the year-end outlook for end-user demand, Turkish players do not foresee a significant price increase, expecting at most minor upward adjustments or rollovers on next deals.
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