Türkiye PVC Outlook for 2026: From pandemic lows to a measured recovery - Will clouds finally scatter after a year of persistent weakness?

PVC has been searching for a floor in Türkiye after more than three quarters of declines in 2025, driven by persistent global price weakness and lackluster demand. Indeed, shrinking sellers’ margins triggered several attempts to halt—or briefly reverse—the downtrend, but each effort ultimately faltered amid subdued end-user consumption, and a broad overhang of supply.

Although the Turkish market showed signs of stabilizing toward late 2025, supported by modest upward corrections from US sellers, players still view the path toward recovery in 2026 as tentative at best.

2025: A year marked by structural weakness and global regulatory uncertainties

The year was marked by chronic oversupply, shifting trade routes amid India’s pending anti-dumping measures, and persistent margin pressures on suppliers. PVC prices in Türkiye dived to multi-year lows as US and Asian, namely South Korean, material flooded the market, with slumping oil futures also contributing. Indeed, Türkiye became South Korea’s second-largest PVC buyer after India in January–October, surpassing Vietnam, according to data from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard. Its share of South Korea’s total exports rose from 7% to 17%, partly reflecting pressure on Asian suppliers, who sought to redirect volumes amid potential Indian trade barriers.

Also, European producers—struggling with high energy costs—offloaded discounted export cargos to keep margins high at home despite their trimmed run rates. From peak to trough, import K67 moved $100-130/ton.

Short-lived periods of firmness driven by geopolitics, energy volatility, or tightening logistics were overshadowed by weak end-user activity and elevated financing costs in Türkiye, as well as sluggish construction sectors in China, Europe, and the US.

Global bearishness and Türkiye’s discount status

Notably, PVC lagged the usual bullish January trend in polymer markets this year, as easing supply concerns and fading replacement activity quickly eroded the early firmer sentiment.

Türkiye traded at deep discounts to Europe, with the gap widening markedly in the second half of the year. Aggressive US forward sales, weak construction activity, and abundant Chinese supply pulled prices down to pandemic-era lows as 2025 unfolded, while tariff disputes between the US and several partners kept markets on edge for most of the year. Converters restricted purchases to immediate needs amid liquidity constraints and weak domestic downstream orders, and netback calculations based on Asia’s import markets consistently showed Türkiye among the cheapest PVC outlets.

By mid-2025, Türkiye had emerged as one of the few high-volume, price-sensitive destinations able to absorb surplus PVC. European suppliers retained local premiums but offered deep CIF discounts, while US-origin material effectively set the global price floor. A surge in US exports to Türkiye—partly due to lost access to traditional markets such as India, Brazil, and Mexico—made the country the second-largest US PVC importer after Canada in Q1 2025. The US share remained dominant in subsequent months, with the removal of an extra 25% import obligation further boosting Turkish buyers’ appetite.

By September, dutiable PVC in Türkiye had slid to levels not seen since early 2020. Some US producers resisted further cuts after clearing bulky stocks, but brief firmness could not counter global oversupply and seasonal demand dips. Most buyers covered only the needs, avoiding inventory build-ups ahead of winter.

Why did Türkiye not rebound even at pandemic lows?

Despite prices reaching historically low levels, Türkiye did not experience typical counter-seasonal buying waves. High interest rates limited working capital access, export-driven converter demand remained weak, and the domestic construction sector operated below potential despite pockets of earthquake-driven rebuilding. Even though Q3 permitting statistics showed a rebound—with dwelling units approved up more than 50% year on year—the impact on PVC consumption is expected to be felt later in 2026. On a broader scale, persistent PVC oversupply continues to cap upside potential across all markets for now.

Stats: PVC imports rise despite chronically weak demand

2025 was shaped more by chronic demand weakness than by supply disruptions. Even periods of rising upstream costs failed to spark meaningful pre-buying, as converters remained cautious, avoiding inventory risks amid sparse downstream orders.

Nevertheless, after contracting by 13% in 2024, based on ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, Türkiye’s imported PVC consumption appears to have regained momentum in 2025. This can be partly attributed to the base effect, as 2024 stayed behind the 2023 record. Moreover, the disappearance of last year’s exchange-rate uncertainty may also have strengthened interest in imported material. Although many players complained that business was weak, once the full-year data for 2025 are released, PVC imports may well end up matching the record levels of 2023.

Despite weak domestic demand, ChemOrbis data shows cumulative imports reached 856,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025—a 27% increase from the same period in 2024, and already above total 2024 volumes.

Drivers included traders’ restocking activity, the removal of the 25% additional duty on US PVC, earthquake-related reconstruction projects, and exports of end products to neighboring Syria. Reduced operating rates at Petkim—reportedly around 50% since the producer began relying on imported VCM—also contributed to stronger import inflows. Additionally, imported PVC prices hitting their lowest levels in at least five years may have helped sustain interest in imports, regardless of the state of derivative demand.

What to watch in 2026

Türkiye will continue reflecting global trade dynamics in 2026, while a solid demand recovery at home will surely take time. US suppliers, constrained by protectionist barriers in certain regions, may maintain Türkiye as a strategic outlet. European sellers will balance high production costs with preserving market share and keeping production low. China’s oversupply and India’s policy stance will also be key determinants.

The expiry of India’s 90-day anti-dumping window and the removal of BIS requirements will ease access for Asian exporters, potentially reducing competitive pressure on Türkiye in Q1.

Recovery depends on improved domestic construction and infrastructure activity, as well as better access to financing. Early-year price tests of $20–30/ton increases are possible but likely to be absorbed only partially, amid the low winter season.

In Q1 2026, a modest rebound may come from restocking, spring preparations, and India’s pre-monsoon buying cycle. Freight gains may be capped by overcapacity, while global fundamentals and China’s February holidays may constrain any significant upside. As 2026 wears on, seasonal lulls, global oversupply, and weak real estate markets are expected to keep PVC within a narrow band. Gradual improvement may follow if interest-rate cuts stimulate construction, but a pronounced rally is unlikely. Competitive pressure from Asia and structural constraints across major economies suggest a slow-healing market rather than a strong recovery.

2025 was dominated by margin pressures and persistent demand-side stagnation. Brief periods of stability did little to alter the broader picture of oversupply. While 2026 may offer pockets of improvement, the market is expected to follow a gradual, measured path toward recovery. Türkiye is likely to traverse a slow road back from one of the most structurally bearish periods of the past decade.