Türkiye PVC market at crossroads: Caught between trade truce optimism and weak demand

The market presented a contradictory picture this week, shaped by cautiously shifting global cues and persistent local challenges. A temporary truce in US-China trade tensions over the weekend helped crude oil prices rebound and fueled speculation about a potential shift in pricing strategies from South Korea, which had been notably aggressive in Türkiye earlier in May. These prompted some traders to withdraw low-end offers or even test modest increases on US-origin materials.

Still, the overall tone remained cautious, as weak domestic demand continued to cast doubt on whether these external supports could translate into a sustained recovery in Türkiye, considering lingering macroeconomic challenges that dimmed derivative activity. As a result, the market stood at a fragile crossroads, balancing emerging optimism against persistent skepticism.

South Korean PVC signals easing aggressiveness

After being notably aggressive in early May, a South Korean supplier slightly increased its K67 offers by $5–10/ton, pulling back from previous transactions as low as around $750/ton CIF, no duty. This move coincided with the US-China trade detente and a corresponding rebound in oil prices, prompting sellers to reassess earlier bottom-level offers. While these modest hikes signaled a degree of confidence, they were still tempered by concerns over the sustainability of the external momentum and the tepid buying appetite in Türkiye.

Lethargic demand remains a drag

In contrast to cautiously firmer talks, Egyptian K67 offers softened by $10/ton this week, reflecting continued market hesitation. Volumes were reported to be small, with sellers conceding to the lack of robust interest, according to a trader.

European suppliers, meanwhile, maintained a relatively quiet stance. Holding their May offers in most cases, except for tiny discounts for large buyers, they faced stiff resistance from buyers unwilling to commit amid poor downstream conditions.

A player said, “European producers are not around nowadays amid margin concerns. Anyways, we feel that both end-product and resin inventories are sufficient. This has kept buyers from responding strongly to the recent optimism.”

Some US PVC suppliers test firmer prices

The dutiable K67 market held steady on the surface this week amid a lack of inquiries from consumers, but some US PVC producers took tentative steps to lift their offers by $10/ton. These hike attempts, though modest, reflected sellers’ efforts to push back against previous price erosion, encouraged in part by rising freight rates and the recent pause in US-China trade tensions. While some traders echoed this firmer sentiment amid expectations of higher shipping costs for June, they remained cautious and continued to monitor buyer reactions.

In the meantime, Chinese K67 offers did not change much over the week, mirroring soft FOB pricing under the pressure from oversupply in the Asian country. Meanwhile, irregular Saudi Arabian K67 emerged to be sold at $715/ton CIF after a long time. Players said, “K67 availability in Türkiye remains comfortable, largely because of weak demand.”

Local PVC defies improved import sentiment

In the domestic market, PVC K67 prices posted another $10/ton drop on the week, which was mainly attributed to muted demand and high inventories. A distributor noted that both resin and end-product stock levels remain elevated in the southern part of Türkiye, weighing on appetite. He also highlighted that PVC K67 continued to lag specialty grades, PVC K70 in particular, in terms of transaction pace, suggesting limited interest in current prices.

Will Türkiye’s PVC market shed its cautionary stance?

According to the weekly average data from ChemOrbis, import PVC K67 prices have shown cautious signals of a stabilization at their 4-year lows this week. This followed a downtrend that had been in place during most of Q1 and Q2 this year.

The short-term outlook remains uncertain. While the US-China trade truce and higher oil prices have injected some support into the market, alongside a relative optimism across Asian PVC markets, weak derivative demand amid high interest rates continues to suppress activity at home for now.

As the June religious holiday approaches, buyers may be wary of building stocks in a soft consumption environment, with some of them readying to suspend manufacturing during the break. On the other side of the coin, higher freight rates may offer some price floor support and help sellers renew their confidence if upstream chain sustains its uptrend and other PVC markets show a more solid momentum.

Looking at other markets, sentiment improved slightly in China, but demand was still capped by weak seasonality and sluggish exports this week. Meanwhile, players will gauge India, where the impacts of the onset of the monsoon season and de-escalating geopolitical tension with Pakistan remain to be seen in the coming term. In Europe, suppliers continued to push for margin recovery, though the approaching summer lull and competitive import alternatives limited their leverage.

In sum, while some encouraging signals are emerging across the board, the Turkish PVC market may not shake off its cautionary stance anytime soon unless domestic demand shows a more robust recovery.