Türkiye PVC market ends March on a soft footing, what lies ahead for April?

Import PVC prices extended their losses for a fifth straight month in March, as the market continued softening despite sellers’ attempts to lift prices amid squeezed margins. Since late 2024, subdued demand has outweighed reduced European supply, keeping PVC from following PP and PE’s upturn. With March set to end weakly after buyers resisted rollovers and hikes, attention has shifted to the post-Eid al-Fitr period amid local and global dynamics.

Prices hit multi-month lows amid Ramadan, adequate supply

ChemOrbis data showed Türkiye’s duty-free K67 market hit a six-month low after March discounts, while dutiable prices fell to their lowest since December 2024. By mid-March, non-dutiable transactions settled in the low-$800s CIF Türkiye, while new US K67 shipments dropped to $720/ton CIF.

Sellers’ margin improvement efforts met buyer resistance, as US hike attempts and European rollovers were pushed back in Q1. Ramadan’s seasonal lull and macroeconomic headwinds pressured derivative segments, further dampening resin demand.

Adding to the pressure, incoming cargoes kept buyers cautious, with some converters already having material in transit. American cargoes secured in late 2024/early 2025 began arriving, putting a strain on some traders along with cash constraints and muted demand.



Chinese PVC struggles to compete in the market

Declining freight rates from Far East Asia to Türkiye and China’s domestic supply overhang paved the way for offers from this origin, though not at aggressive levels. Traders admitted struggling to compete with American prices. Meanwhile, a Taiwanese major’s bearish stance added pressure, as it issued April price cuts and volume discounts ahead of potential Indian AD duties on several import origins.

China’s export offers saw a slight hike attempt this week, supported by firmer oil and Dalian futures, though buyers remained skeptical amid ample local supply. In India, PVC players discussed a possible price floor after a major Taiwanese producer cut April prices for the fourth month. Some noted producers were selling below costs, but activity remained muted.

Players foresee minor changes in April, eyes on economy

The upcoming holiday and soft April outlook kept price discussions sporadic this week, with players focusing on the volatile economic scene. Some European PVC producers postponed new offers, citing uncompetitive pricing and Turkish buyers’ cautious stance. They noted, “We can’t match current buy ideas, and market visibility remains short due to volatile parity and economic uncertainty.” Meanwhile, a regional supplier seeking April hikes last week lowered its price by $10/ton due to weak buying enthusiasm.

With most PVC converters planning holiday shutdowns and fresh offers yet to emerge, trading will likely remain slow until mid-April. Not voicing any supply concerns, buyers anticipate slight discounts in their following deals, though sellers’ squeezed margins may limit reductions.

It remains unclear whether the Easter break and possibly lower April ethylene contracts in Europe will bring larger regional volumes, or trade barriers will lead to more ex-USG cargos into Türkiye. Besides, players will keep a close eye on buyers’ behavior post Eid, with a possible support from seasonality on one hand and the arising economic blur on the other hand.

A profile manufacturer opined, “The recent political tensions have raised the likelihood of increased inflation, potentially slowing down the interest rate cut cycle. Elevated interest rates may postpone a more solid recovery in downstream markets for a while. The possible impact of economic sensitivity on the GDP target will become clear over time.” A seller said, “The rise in exchange rates may provide some relief to exporters. However, markets seem likely to remain on hold due to uncertainties and the impact of the holiday break.”