Türkiye PVC market seeks direction amid persistent global headwinds

Import PVC prices saw minor fluctuations toward the end of October, caught between thin producer margins and tepid buying appetite. Following their return from K 2025, some buyers reported receiving a wider spectrum of offers from suppliers at varying levels. Yet, overall, the market appeared to be in a holding pattern, with most players not expecting any major movements in either direction in the near term. Sentiment remained weighed down by bearish trends in Asia and lower oil and ethylene prices.

US PVC under spotlight as certain markets see record lows   

Early in the month, US sell ideas briefly showed firmness, buoyed by the removal of the 25% financial obligation on American cargoes, better demand in late Q3, and traders raising offers to or above $650/ton CIF. As buyers resisted firmer pricing, prompting several traders to roll offers back to September levels around $620-630/ton CIF. Chinese offers, meanwhile, remained above the top end of the overall dutiable range, with buyers noting reluctance among sellers to accept bids at $640/ton CIF, even for large-volume deals, for the time being.

US-origin PVC K67–68 saw historic lows in Asia this week. In China, offers fell to $570/ton CIF, cash, dragging the weekly average to its lowest since the ChemOrbis CIF China US PVC index was launched in 2008. Vietnam mirrored the trend, with a converter reportedly receiving an offer at $590/ton CIF, marking the first time the market has seen such levels in 17 years. These developments underlined the continuing downward pressure from US suppliers on the global stage, causing jitters among Turkish players. At the same time, some traders pointed to maintenance shutdowns at some American PVC makers as a factor that may limit downside in the coming term.

European PVC rollovers fail amid buyer resistance in October
   
Non-dutiable K67 prices were reported in the range of $730–750/ton CIF, cash. Within this band, European producers’ agents aimed to hold offers near $750/ton, although most counterbids emerged below that level. An agent of a Western European supplier remarked, “We may resume K70 offers in November after a pause. As for K67, we were disappointed to see European deals concluded at levels comparable to low-end South Korean cargoes in October.”

Some buyers were offered European K65/K67 cargos at €560–570/ton ($650–660/ton with recent parity), CIF cash, but subject to a 7.93% anti-dumping duty. Even after accounting for the extra obligation, these offers corresponded to the low $700s/ton — below the prevailing low end of the market — though they were not included in the ChemOrbis Price Index due to lack of broader market confirmation at the time of writing.

A manufacturer commented, “We will decide whether to consider this competitive level, as the price is attractive and there isn’t much room for further declines in Türkiye. Still, we remain hesitant due to the lack of momentum in global PVC markets — what if European offers drop further next month and we end up regretting our purchase?”

Global weakness dominates, while Türkiye unlikely to see big swings    

Import K67 prices are currently standing at a 5.5-year low, as per the weekly average data from ChemOrbis Price Wizard. Still, the sentiment remains under pressure from the supply glut in Asia, a prolonged monsoon season in India, sliding feedstock costs, and some nearing plant restarts in Europe.

Despite these challenges, modest netbacks in Türkiye may help prices hold sideways rather than decline further. At the same time, no supportive factors are evident to drive a rebound from near pandemic-era lows, as global demand remains sluggish and costs are well below early 2025 figures. Some traders reported firmer freight rates from South Korea, but it remains uncertain whether these will be sustained or limit further discounts to Türkiye in the near term. Additionally, the recent rise in ex-China freight rates, driven by surcharges from both the US and China, has become a key topic for market watchers, although experts question whether this increase will be sustainable.

In the medium term, Turkish players should monitor whether Europe, a key PVC exporter to Türkiye, will adopt further protectionist measures against competitive Asian imports or seek new opportunities in India, where better netbacks and stronger growth prospects prevail.