Türkiye PVC market tests new highs, buyers cautious over signals from the Middle East

The market extended its sharp uptrend this week, driven by soaring US-origin offers and the absence of most European suppliers, although emerging signals of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict and falling oil prices created fresh uncertainty. After a period of active restocking in previous weeks, buyers largely retreated to the sidelines, leading to a visible slowdown in trading activity despite continued cost support for sellers.

Asian offers remain scarce, ex-USG talks reach a new threshold

The latest rally was led by the US market, where talks about rising FAS Houston benchmarks—reported at $1000/ton or above—pushed export offers sharply higher. Dutiable K67 prices were assessed $50/ton above last week as of Wednesday. Some sell ideas tested as high as $1100/ton CIF Türkiye, both for US and Chinese cargos, although these levels struggled to attract buying interest unless tied to prompt or en-route cargos. Market participants noted that earlier deals around $1030/ton set a psychological ceiling, limiting the workability of more aggressive hike attempts.

European PVC producers still on hold

In the duty-free segment, price increases were even more pronounced, with weekly gains reaching $100/ton amid the ongoing absence of South Korean shipments due to war-driven feedstock constraints. European producers also tested significantly higher levels, with some offers reported at $1300/ton CIF or above, although these were largely deemed unworkable. Egyptian material at around $1200/ton CIF similarly failed to generate buying interest, pointing to a widening gap between seller expectations and buyer affordability.

Spread between K70 and other grades widen

On the domestic front, higher import costs continued to feed into local pricing. K67 rose by another $60/ton on the week, while specialty grades posted steeper increases of $100/ton or beyond due to tighter availability.

The widening spread between K67 and K58/K70 reflected stronger supply constraints in niche segments, while distributors’ pricing strategies remained under scrutiny, as some players suspected stock withholding despite others pointing to genuine tightness.

Buyers sidelined post-holiday

Demand dynamics, however, showed signs of fatigue. Following a wave of earlier purchases aimed at hedging against further hikes, converters largely stepped back, particularly after the Eid break. Softer oil prices—linked to easing geopolitical tensions—also weakened the cost-push narrative to some extent, prompting buyers to question the sustainability of the rally. At the same time, difficulties in passing elevated resin costs onto export markets, especially in the Middle East, continued to weigh on purchasing appetite.

Looking ahead, the short-term outlook remains firm, albeit relatively cautious. Limited availability from key origins and high global cost structures may support prices in the near term. However, buyer resistance is expected to intensify, particularly if energy markets remain soft and geopolitical risks ease further.

For the medium term, attention will focus on the trajectory of the conflict and demand conditions. A potential normalization in supply, coupled with subdued demand, could cap further gains or even trigger a correction at some point, while persistent supply constraints may keep the market elevated, particularly if seasonality supports domestic derivative demand and logistic costs remain expensive.