Türkiye’s PE market splits as import hikes lose steam, local prices rise further

Türkiye’s PE market presented an increasingly two-sided picture over the week, as resistance to August import hikes contrasted with further gains in the locally held market. Middle Eastern suppliers conceded part of their initial increases to conclude business, while US offers retreated from previous highs amid thin buying interest.

Meanwhile, lean distributor stocks, active buying interest, and higher replenishment costs continued to underpin prompt prices, leaving converters with elevated levels for immediately available material amid risky distant imports.

US PE retreats, Middle Eastern sellers compromise

August negotiations increasingly confirmed that suppliers’ initial hike targets were difficult to fully pass through. Middle Eastern LLDPE and HDPE deals reflected discounts from opening announcements. The correction was more visible for US-origin PE, with more LLDPE and HDPE offers moving below the $1100/ton CIF threshold after the previous upturn lost momentum.

Buyers remained particularly reluctant to commit to cargoes with lengthy delivery terms. Firm PE trends in Asia and India offered some support to sellers, but volatile crude oil and subdued derivative orders kept buyers wary of chasing higher import levels, with local materials seen as more favorable.

LDPE proves more resilient, supported by fewer import sources

LDPE continued to stand out from the broader PE market. Middle Eastern LDPE assessments rose by another $20/ton on the week, versus easing LLDPE and HDPE film on the low ends. The product was supported by limited import sources and modest Petkim availability for select grades, while sellers faced less pressure to retreat from their August targets. The relative scarcity of LDPE also continued to support the locally held market, where distributors sought higher levels of up to $1850/ton ex-warehouse, inc. VAT. As a result, LDPE may retain a firmer footing than other PE grades in the near term unless availability improves.

Prompt market more bullish as distributor stocks stay lean

The locally held market continued to move up, with PE assessments adding $10-20/ton on the week despite the loss of momentum in some import segments. Petkim maintained its list prices after a series of earlier increases, while distributors offered up to $1750/ton ex-warehouse, inc. VAT for LLDPE and HDPE film in some cases.

Supply and logistics uncertainties also reinforced the preference for prompt or fast-arriving cargoes, with congestion at Jeddah, lengthy US delivery terms and Black Sea disruptions remaining on players’ radar. The drone attack targeting SIBUR’s Tobolsk complex added another element of uncertainty, although players refrained from drawing firm conclusions while the extent of the damage remained unclear. The divergence between distant and prompt material has consequently left the market in a delicate balance.

Players weary of market swings, fresh September cues awaited

Turkish buyers have grown increasingly weary of frequent shifts in pricing and sentiment. In the near term, Türkiye’s PE market may enter a period of consolidation as sellers seek to defend replacement costs while buyers resist further sizable increases. Tight prompt availability and firm global PE trends should help prevent a return to pre-rebound lows, whereas sluggish downstream demand and reluctance toward distant cargoes are likely to limit the upside.

September could provide clearer direction as European players return from summer holidays and post-monsoon buying potentially improves in India. A simultaneous recovery in global demand, constrained supply, and firmer upstream costs could revive hike attempts. Conversely, weaker energy markets or persistently poor derivative orders could bring a stabilization or fresh concessions depending on grade if peace arrives in the Middle East.