Türkiye’s PP, PE, and PVC markets eye post-Eid for direction

Polyolefin markets showed signs of stabilization after months of downward momentum in Türkiye in the second half of May. Sellers took a firmer stance on pricing amid rising freight rates, margin pressures, and narrowing gaps with Asian markets. Similarly, PVC sentiment among sellers was underpinned by price hikes across Asia this week, with some traders signaling higher US offers to Türkiye.

However, with most converters stepping back ahead of the Eid al-Adha holiday — and June trends likely hinging on how demand evolves once players return to their desks — caution about the possibility of a solid upturn remained intact.

Low-end PPH prices lean toward recovery

Last week, the import PP market, which has been under sustained downward pressure since March, showed clearer signs that price floors may have been reached. Sellers resisted further discounts, supported by sold-out allocations, higher shipping costs on ex-Asia routes, and narrowing arbitrage over China, with Türkiye’s premium shrinking to around $75/ton. These factors, combined with mid-May restocking activity and a turnaround at a Russian producer, encouraged a firmer pricing tone, particularly for Saudi Arabian and South Korean origins. Following suit, sentiment in the local market signaled stabilization, as distributors noted that further losses were unlikely, with resellers seeking to avoid offering below replacement cost.

Despite firmer seller sentiment, the demand picture remained restrained. Restocking was driven more by expectations of bottoming prices than by real improvement in downstream consumption. Converters continued to face liquidity issues, subdued export orders, and tight credit access.

Players agree that meaningful recovery will depend on clearer post-Eid demand signals and broader economic relief. While suppliers are eyeing price hikes after the holiday, aggressive upward moves may be tempered by still-weak fundamentals and ongoing macroeconomic constraints, including high inflation and borrowing costs. A PP manufacturer said, “We may see some hikes in the short term as Saudi Arabian suppliers are free from stock pressure. However, June will be a short month, with not many players expected to return from holiday before June 10. This, coupled with potential arrivals of cargos secured in May, will limit upside in the medium term.”

New PE offers yet to surface as holiday looms

The PE market echoed the cautiously improved tone seen in PP, with aggressive American HDPE and LLDPE film offers fading and price cuts generally losing momentum last week. This week, a Middle Eastern producer revealed initial June offers mostly with rollovers, noting positive early feedback from customers.

However, holiday-related manufacturing shutdowns and persistent cash constraints kept hike expectations modest. A packager commented, “Demand for plastic bags lagged our hopes before the Eid break. Financing remains an issue, which hinders replenishment activity. Thus, prompt PE supply may shrink temporarily, and post-Eid activity may see an uptick. Still, we do not foresee a swift upturn, looking at volatile global oil markets and nearing summer holidays in Europe.”

On the global stage, stabilizing upstream costs and firmer freight rates on select routes offered some positive signals. Still, overall sentiment was weighed down by global economic headwinds and uncertainty following the recent US-China trade truce. Most Turkish players believe a clearer direction will emerge in the second half of June, once post-holiday restocking behavior becomes evident.

PVC players monitor global markets

As of mid-week, June PVC offers had yet to be shaped, as suppliers were in no rush to set official prices amid a firmer trend in Asia. Most players were preparing to leave their desks for the Eid al-Adha holiday, which starts late next week, keeping activity stalled despite improved sentiment among PVC suppliers.

Despite sporadic offers, the notional ranges gained ground for the first time in a while, owing to traders’ reports of firmer intentions from US PVC producers and stable June ethylene contracts in Europe. A large trader noted, “Our supplier lifted its offers by $40/ton on Tuesday, while our negotiations are underway.” Signs of a firmer attitude from PVC makers aligned with the recently stronger scene in Asia, where a Taiwanese major adopted a slightly bullish stance for June shipments at the beginning of the week. A European producer said they expect to see better demand after the holiday, adding, “We rolled over our K67 prices as South Korean prices turned up this week.”

Activity may remain tepid in the short term, given Turkish converters’ plans to suspend manufacturing during the Eid holiday. Nonetheless, poor netbacks compared to many other markets and rising freight rates are expected to lend support to sellers, while hike attempts by certain traders may stimulate resin demand post-Eid.

June scene hinges on post-holiday demand

Across all markets, the key question is whether improved seller sentiment can translate into sustainable price increases in June. Much will depend on how demand unfolds after the holiday, especially as converters reassess inventory levels and replacement costs. Meanwhile, global factors such as oil price movements, developments in Asian markets, and freight dynamics will play a decisive role in determining whether Türkiye’s narrowing premium over Asia can be maintained, considering higher shipping costs.

While some sellers are positioning for modest hikes on the back of higher costs and limited quotas, buyers are likely to push back, possibly weighing the state of their downstream orders and their cargos on the way before committing to fresh purchases. Unless there is a visible recovery in demand and broader economic conditions, the market may see just modest gains, with only selective price adjustments depending on grade and origin.