Türkiye’s PP, PE markets at multi-year lows; downward pressure continues for Oct

Polyolefin markets remain under pressure as September closes, with prices receding amid weak seasonal demand, abundant supply, and challenging global conditions. Buyers continue to push for lower October bids, while sellers struggle with thin margins and limited room for dramatic cuts for select products. Globally, muted European demand, China’s upcoming National Day holiday, and cautious post-monsoon expectations from India are shaping sentiment in Türkiye, leaving market participants wary of a near-term rebound.

Structural oversupply, competitive Middle Eastern, US, and Asian cargoes, and tepid year-end consumption are likely to keep polyolefin markets soft through Q4, even as Türkiye’s Central Bank rate policies offer potential, though limited, support for downstream buying.

According to weekly averages from the ChemOrbis Price Index, Saudi Arabian PPH prices are hovering near a five-year low, while Middle Eastern PE cargoes and Saudi Arabian PPBC inj. volumes trade around a two-year low.

“Our gap with China’s import PPH and LDPE markets has narrowed sharply, leaving limited room for further downside. Still, PPBC injection, LLDPE, and HDPE film prices have some room to fall, particularly if South Korean and US suppliers stay aggressive,” players said.

PP: Buyers push for lower bids, sellers face margin squeeze

Türkiye’s PP market continued to edge lower this week, with import and local price ranges down by a modest $10–20/ton. Buyers retained the upper hand, citing weak seasonal demand and sufficient availability from Middle Eastern and Russian sources. Sellers faced narrowing margins and mounting global pressures, raising questions over when the market might finally stabilize.

Buy ideas for Saudi Arabian raffia neared the $850/ton CIF threshold, while some fibre buyers expect prices to move down to $900/ton or slightly below. The China-Türkiye PPH gap narrowed to just $50/ton—the tightest in three years—highlighting heightened regional competitiveness. A player commented, “The wide gap with China’s import PPBC inj. market, combined with the mounting pressure from South Korean volumes, suggests Middle Eastern producers may have to cut offers further in October.” Copolymer grades slipped below the $1000/ton CIF mark on the low end late last week.

Looking ahead, Türkiye’s PP market is expected to maintain a soft trajectory in October. Further sharp declines are unlikely as producers’ squeezed margins act as a natural brake. Still, seasonal optimism tied to India’s post-monsoon demand and China’s “Silver October” is overshadowed by structural oversupply, weak derivative consumption, and subdued European demand. Buyers also pointed to a lack of post-summer holiday momentum in nearby Europe as another drag for the coming term.

PE: Further drops may emerge unless global signals improve

Türkiye’s PE market is ending September on a weak note, with US cargoes exerting continued downward pressure. LLDPE C4 film, HDPE film, and blow molding offers reached new lows for this origin this week, weighing on October projections about Middle Eastern announcements. Looking at global cues, European markets remained muted ahead of the October ethylene settlement. China’s National Day holiday (October 1–8) further dampened sentiment, limiting near-term buying activity. Although market participants are monitoring potential post-monsoon demand in India, a reversal of the downtrend seems unlikely in Türkiye.

For October, Türkiye’s PE market is likely to face further softness unless US exporters ease aggressive stock clearance. Capacity reductions from older Chinese plants and South Korea’s restructuring may not provide any immediate relief.

The extent of any drop will largely depend on US PE benchmarks, while Middle Eastern producers’ responses to fresh lows remain uncertain. Domestically, potential Central Bank rate cuts could gradually stimulate downstream consumption, though a meaningful recovery is unlikely before mid-to-late 2026.

Typical November year-end destocking and seasonal weakness are expected to weigh further, with stabilization possible only by December if US inflows retreat from global markets. Overall, the Q4 outlook remains weak for now amid plentiful supply, subdued seasonal demand, and macroeconomic uncertainty.