Türkiye’s PP and PE markets brace for February hike requests

2026 began with price increases in Türkiye’s polyolefin markets, in line with earlier expectations. Limited supply for most products from key sourcing regions such as the Middle East and Russia was the main driver behind the early-year hikes, with transactions typically reflecting increases of around $20/ton. At present, regular PP and PE suppliers are expected to seek further price increases for February, citing rising feedstock costs and the ongoing tight supply situation.

Despite the approaching Ramadan period and the Chinese New Year holiday, PP and PE buyers are likely to absorb at least part of the potential price increases should supply concerns prevail.

Tight import and local volumes support PP outlook

Homo PP volumes from Russia have remained limited since the start of the new year, while a continued outage at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field—affecting propane availability and downstream PP output—has added to supply tightness. Some buyers also pointed to delayed deliveries of Saudi-origin cargoes, with one noting, “Our November shipments will arrive no earlier than late February.”

Market players further highlighted the recent rise in tensions between the US and Iran, alongside freezing weather in the US that disrupted refinery operations and lifted global crude oil prices this week. “Higher upstream costs are lending support to downstream PP sellers, many of whom have been struggling with squeezed margins over the past year. Still, the latest wave of price gains has been driven more by supply-side constraints than by a meaningful recovery in end-market demand,” a raffia converter commented.

Bullish US signals likely to encourage Middle Eastern PE price hikes

Although fresh February PE prices have yet to be announced, sources at Middle Eastern producers have signaled renewed hike requests for next week. One regional producer said, “We may seek $40/ton increases; otherwise, we may struggle to secure allocations for Türkiye. Overall, PE supply is tight, and the freezing weather in the US has reinforced this situation.” Industry sources reported precautionary shutdowns at ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell, given harsh weather conditions in Texas.

Some buyers, however, expect more modest gains of around $20/ton to be reflected in February deals, citing potential resistance from the market. A converter commented, “We expect Middle Eastern suppliers to test $20–30/ton increases, given the rise in US PE offers. Still, Türkiye’s premium over Asian import PE markets has widened for most grades, and not every buyer will be willing to accept steeper hikes next month.”

Based on weekly average data from ChemOrbis Price Wizard, import Middle Eastern PE last traded $80–135/ton above China levels, with the widest premium seen in LLDPE C4 film.

Meanwhile, a packager noted, “HDPE film supply remains limited and continues to find support from the downstream market. However, prospects for LDPE-based derivatives do not look as encouraging at present. As the holy month of Ramadan approaches, buying appetite is expected to be the key factor shaping the size of any further PE price increases.”

Players evaluate potential impact of India-EU agreement

After almost twenty years of on-and-off talks, the European Union and India reached a political agreement on a comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) on January 27, 2026. The deal explicitly includes chemicals and plastics, although HS-level tariff specifics for polymers, plastics, and downstream manufacturing have not yet been released.

This development is also of close concern to players in Türkiye. In the medium term, the agreement could affect polymer flows into Türkiye, while also potentially undermining manufacturers’ exports of finished products to neighboring Europe.

A big bag manufacturer said, “India is our biggest competitor in Europe. In a scenario where the Union removes tariffs for India, our exports to the region could take a hit.” A PE converter also voiced concerns that the latest development would make exports of various finished goods from Türkiye to Europe more challenging and intensify competition with India.