Türkiye’s PVC market pressured by weak demand and global uncertainty

The market continued to face pressure into the second half of April, weighed down by subdued domestic demand, liquidity issues, and global uncertainties amid an ongoing, broad-based trade conflict. Buyers remained cautious in the face of economic headwinds, limiting trading activity and challenging sellers’ efforts to stabilize prices. American K67 offers hit a fresh low of $700/ton CIF on the low end this week, while European sellers pushed for rollovers. Looking ahead to May, players are not exactly brimming with optimism and are refraining from making predictions.

Türkiye’s PVC market has been feeling the pressure from all sides — from global trade uncertainties to sluggish local demand. Still, some players point to potential export opportunities for Turkish manufacturers, depending on how the trade war triggered by the US evolves.

Lower US offers send dutiable market to a 5-year low   

The weekly average of the market pointed to an almost 5-year low, according to ChemOrbis data. US K67 offers were reported as low as $700/ton CIF Türkiye, with traders citing pressure from lethargic demand and ample stocks at a large-scale PVC producer. A trader commented, “We revised our offers down by $20/ton from last week. We believe US PVC makers may opt to reduce their run rates to prevent further price cuts and cope with weak demand amid tariff turmoil.”

A converter added, “Some suppliers seem already willing to concede to $690/ton CIF in the case of firm bids.”

Chinese K67 prices held largely steady week over week, amid a lack of buying appetite and limited fresh indications from traders, not to mention volatile ocean freight rates. Meanwhile, export offers on an FOB China basis saw fresh decreases of $15–30/ton this week, marking historic lows. “If freight rates drop, we may receive more competitive Chinese offers next month, also considering stable to lower expectations regarding a Taiwanese major’s May announcements,” a trader noted.

Prices for nearby European origins relatively resilient   

Meanwhile, an agent of a European PVC maker reported rollovers for May cargoes amid a force majeure at his supplier and ongoing margin concerns, noting they were awaiting customer feedback at the time of publication. However, reduced output across the bloc did little to shift sentiment, as the market remained firmly driven by demand dynamics.

Egyptian prices, meanwhile, returned to the pre-holiday low of $810/ton on the low end, after slight upward correction attempts succumbed to lackluster demand and a weakening upstream chain.

What lies ahead: Price floor or further fall?   

Domestic liquidity issues and the uncertain outcomes of the trade war amid concerns over an economic slowdown in the global economy will likely continue to weigh on PVC into May. Early expectations point to modest drops, given the upcoming Easter holiday in Europe, comfortable supply in the US, and weaker price sentiment across Asia. While oil prices have bounced back slightly, they are still hovering around multi-year lows, players also note.

However, not everyone sees doom and gloom. Some industry voices suggest that production cuts, particularly in Europe, and a potential uptick in seasonal activity could help slow the slide. Still, much depends on whether downstream industries, especially construction, recover and economic headwinds begin to ease.