US PE aggression from year-end destocking ends in Europe, Türkiye; momentum ebbs in Asia

US PE suppliers, who dominated global markets for months with aggressively discounted offers particularly as a part of their year-end destocking activity, appear to be pulling back from their steepest reductions as December kicks off. While Europe shows a stable to firmer outlook on US PE pricing and Türkiye sees US sellers gradually step aside as margins compress, Asia continues to receive the bulk of competitive US cargoes—though the downward momentum has noticeably slowed.

Asia: China, SEA receive bulk of US PE, though price aggression cools

US-origin PE has continued to shape the lower ends of Asia’s price ranges, with American LDPE film pushing China’s market toward the $900/ton threshold, LLDPE film nearing $750/ton, and HDPE film slipping below $800/ton, all on a CIF, cash basis. In Southeast Asia, US LDPE film prices hit $950/ton CIF, LLDPE film moved close to $800/ton, and HDPE film broke below $850/ton, reinforcing the dominance of competitively priced American cargoes across regional benchmarks.

The regional markets continued to absorb sizable volumes of US-origin material last week, though players widely agreed that the intensity of aggressive pricing has eased from earlier months. The influx of discounted American cargoes—amplified by the recent easing in US-China trade tensions—kept pressure on regional price ranges, with the lower ends in both China and Southeast Asia once again dominated by US offers.

LDPE prices saw a slight dip, driven by persistent availability of attractively priced US parcels and softer downstream sentiment. In contrast, HDPE and LLDPE film ranges held broadly stable, signaling that the latest round of US undercutting has lost some momentum. Buyers across the region said they still feel downside pressure, noting that year-end promotions from sellers cannot be ruled out in December, especially if demand remains tepid.

Even so, several sources commented that US producers may have already offloaded much of their surplus inventory in Asia. This, they argued, could limit the scope for further price-driven aggression, particularly as Middle Eastern suppliers have trimmed their offers enough to match or nearly match US levels. The narrowing gap between US and Middle Eastern origins has intensified competition but also suggests that additional steep cuts from the US may be increasingly difficult to justify.

Türkiye: US PE firms up, LLDPE-led correction sets new floor

US PE offers to Türkiye firmed up following a notable upward correction in LLDPE C4 film in early November, signaling a shift from the prior low-price momentum that had dominated the market and weighed on regular Middle Eastern suppliers throughout the autumn.

LLDPE C4 film had been trading in the low-$800s/ton CIF Türkiye, but by mid-November, offers climbed to $840–850/ton CIF as suppliers secured substantial sales across multiple markets. Rising US-to-Mediterranean freight rates supported the upward adjustment at the time, allowing sellers to reject counterbids at $800–820/ton. The correction in LLDPE effectively established a new floor in the market, while previous floor levels for US-origin HDPE grades largely disappeared. US LDPE remained relatively flat, reflecting limited buying interest for distant cargos and underscoring that firmness was concentrated in LLDPE and HDPE.

The firmness in US-origin PE continued through last week, with LLDPE C4 film and HDPE sell ideas reaching up to $880/ton CIF, subject to 6.5% duty. This reflected a broader stabilization trend, supported by indications of a potential LDPE price recovery in Europe ahead of Christmas and tighter HDPE film availability in the US. Despite these stronger levels, some buyers remained cautious, hoping suppliers might reconsider their elevated offers after heavy purchases in October and early November had already covered immediate needs. US producers reportedly sold out for December and refrained from issuing fresh offers, possibly preparing for price hikes for January volumes.

LLDPE and LDPE may remain vulnerable if aggressive US or European volumes re-enter the market, some buyers claim. Nonetheless, suppliers appear focused on shipping already-sold cargoes ahead of the Christmas break rather than pursuing new exports. Market participants now turn attention to this week’s Plast Eurasia fair in Istanbul, where a tug-of-war could unfold between sellers facing squeezed margins and buyers largely covered for early Q1 2026.

Europe: US suppliers retreat from aggressive pricing; higher prices emerge

Europe’s PE markets appear to have moved beyond the worst of the US destocking wave, with fresh offers in the last week of November signalling a clearer stabilisation compared to early-month lows. These steep declines seen through autumn have created a sense of “technical bottoming,” driving selective Q1 restocking and leaving sellers with limited room to push prices any lower. This largely mirrors the sentiment in Türkiye, where US suppliers have adopted a firmer stance and gradually withdrawn from the market as price levels no longer justified deeper concessions.

Market tone has shifted noticeably from early November. The flow of discounted US cargoes has eased, and replacement costs for January arrivals are low, landing at stable-to-firmer levels. A look at mid- to late-November pricing underscores this change. In Italy, US LLDPE offers rose from €800/ton DDP, 60 days to €820/ton, while mLLDPE C6 increased from €900–920/ton to €920–930/ton in the same period. In the Netherlands, recent offers stood even higher than in Italy at €870/ton for LLDPE and €1000/ton for mLLDPE C6—reflecting the retreat of aggressive US pricing and a broader shift toward rollovers. These levels indicate that the gap between imports and local prices persists but is no longer widening.

Buyers, who believe spot prices have reached the floor, have begun booking extra volumes for Q1. This behaviour was particularly visible in LDPE, where slightly tighter regional availability prompted some US suppliers to attempt modest €30/ton increases. For HDPE and LLDPE, however, market talk remained largely centred on rollovers as year-end holidays and inventory-minimisation strategies continued to cap any meaningful uptrend.

Meanwhile, players noted that US flows could increase again if the proposal to remove US PE tariffs in Europe is approved. However, this proposal has not been accepted yet, and the market is not pricing in such an impact for the near term.

Overall, the European PE market seems to be transitioning from a supply-led slide to a period of consolidation. The pullback of aggressive US offers, improving early-2026 buying interest, and marginal firming attempts in LDPE suggest that a short-term floor has been established, even as seasonal slowdowns temper the outlook for stronger gains in the coming weeks.