US PE exports set for a new record for 2025 despite trade war headwinds
by Esra Ersöz - eersoz@chemorbis.com
2025 has been marked by persistent headwinds from the trade war launched by the Trump administration shortly after returning to the White House, with tensions repeatedly flaring up and easing amid intermittent truces. Despite these persistent trade frictions and even anti-dumping measures in certain destinations, ChemOrbis Stats Wizard data show that US exporters have not only weathered the storm but also are on track to set a brand new record this year.
Before jumping into where and how US PE exporters ramped up sales, let’s have a look at the destinations where trade war and antidumping investigations have taken their toll on their market shares.
Where did the US lose market share in 2025?
China:
US PE shipments to China, which was last year’s by far the largest destination, marked a 30% year-on-year decline and moved down to third place in the partners’ list. The slump largely reflected the prolonged trade war that lasted until November. Still, the downturn did not translate into a complete shutdown of trade as the current customs duty remains at 6.5% for US PE in China whereas regular US goods are subject to at least 10% duty as a part of the deal finalized following the end of the second truce in November. That is to say, the door to China has never been fully closed, and continued inflows highlight the resilience of US material even under elevated geopolitical pressure.
Brazil:
Exports to Brazil edged down by 8% in January-September 2025 on a yearly basis. This came amid the introduction of anti-dumping duties. However, as highlighted before, ADDs have not significantly curbed US PE inflows right after August, with volumes remaining historically high and US suppliers retaining a dominant position in the Brazilian market. This is expected to have a sharper impact in 2026.
EU27 outpaces China for US PE in 2025; to be a key growth engine in 2026
The EU27 emerged to be the top buyer of US PE in January-September this year. US PE exports rose by 17% while the EU’s share in US PE exports also grew around 2% this year. This gain has been materialized despite the fact that there was sheer uncertainty pervading the markets in the first half of the year given the possibility of a retaliation on US PE from the EU during the flare-up and truce period.
Contrary to the expectations of additional duties within the scope of possible retaliation, the
existing 6.5% duty was proposed to be removed in late August following the end of the trade truce, allowing US producers to sharpen their competitiveness in one of the world’s largest plastics markets, if approved by the parliament.
US PE is set to gain more market share across Europe with its doors wide open, on the heels of competitive price power and possibly duty-free access, while the region’s reliance on imports is growing amid local supply constraints, rationalizations and ongoing cost pressures faced by regional producers.
ASEAN: Diversion flows gain traction
US PE exports to ASEAN jumped by 26% on a yearly basis. With ASEAN’s share in US exports nudging up to 10%, the region became the 4th largest buyer of US PE after the EU, Mexico and China. ASEAN, particularly Vietnam, has increasingly acted as a balancing outlet as US suppliers diverted volumes to offset softer demand in China.
Beyond short-term trade diversion, structural tailwinds are building. Malaysia has already scrapped duties on US PE, while Indonesia is expected to finalize its trade agreement by year-end, which would further widen market access and strengthen the region’s role in absorbing US material.
Türkiye: The most striking gain in US PE exports
US PE shipments to Türkiye surged by more than 38%, marking the strongest growth among all major destinations. While Türkiye retained its position as the seventh-largest buyer, its share of total US PE exports increased by 1% to 4%.
Find a lot more at ChemOrbis Stats Wizard
ChemOrbis Stats Wizard offers comprehensive and easy-to-navigate trade statistics, allowing users to track import and export flows by volume, partner, reporter, and market share. The tool enables monthly, quarterly and annual comparisons across countries, regions and trade blocs, covering a wide range of products and origins. Presented through clear tables and intuitive charts, Stats Wizard provides accurate, timely insights to support market analysis and strategic decision-making.
US polyethylene exports reached over 11 million tons during January–September 2025 - the latest available figures due to the US government shutdown from October 1 to November 12 - up 7% from the same period of last year. With shipments maintaining a solid pace into the fourth quarter, full-year exports are now projected to exceed 15 million tons, setting a brand-new historical record for US PE overseas sales.
Before jumping into where and how US PE exporters ramped up sales, let’s have a look at the destinations where trade war and antidumping investigations have taken their toll on their market shares.
Where did the US lose market share in 2025?
China:
US PE shipments to China, which was last year’s by far the largest destination, marked a 30% year-on-year decline and moved down to third place in the partners’ list. The slump largely reflected the prolonged trade war that lasted until November. Still, the downturn did not translate into a complete shutdown of trade as the current customs duty remains at 6.5% for US PE in China whereas regular US goods are subject to at least 10% duty as a part of the deal finalized following the end of the second truce in November. That is to say, the door to China has never been fully closed, and continued inflows highlight the resilience of US material even under elevated geopolitical pressure.
Brazil:
Exports to Brazil edged down by 8% in January-September 2025 on a yearly basis. This came amid the introduction of anti-dumping duties. However, as highlighted before, ADDs have not significantly curbed US PE inflows right after August, with volumes remaining historically high and US suppliers retaining a dominant position in the Brazilian market. This is expected to have a sharper impact in 2026.
EU27 outpaces China for US PE in 2025; to be a key growth engine in 2026
The EU27 emerged to be the top buyer of US PE in January-September this year. US PE exports rose by 17% while the EU’s share in US PE exports also grew around 2% this year. This gain has been materialized despite the fact that there was sheer uncertainty pervading the markets in the first half of the year given the possibility of a retaliation on US PE from the EU during the flare-up and truce period.
Contrary to the expectations of additional duties within the scope of possible retaliation, the
existing 6.5% duty was proposed to be removed in late August following the end of the trade truce, allowing US producers to sharpen their competitiveness in one of the world’s largest plastics markets, if approved by the parliament.
US PE is set to gain more market share across Europe with its doors wide open, on the heels of competitive price power and possibly duty-free access, while the region’s reliance on imports is growing amid local supply constraints, rationalizations and ongoing cost pressures faced by regional producers.
ASEAN: Diversion flows gain traction
US PE exports to ASEAN jumped by 26% on a yearly basis. With ASEAN’s share in US exports nudging up to 10%, the region became the 4th largest buyer of US PE after the EU, Mexico and China. ASEAN, particularly Vietnam, has increasingly acted as a balancing outlet as US suppliers diverted volumes to offset softer demand in China.
Beyond short-term trade diversion, structural tailwinds are building. Malaysia has already scrapped duties on US PE, while Indonesia is expected to finalize its trade agreement by year-end, which would further widen market access and strengthen the region’s role in absorbing US material.
Türkiye: The most striking gain in US PE exports
US PE shipments to Türkiye surged by more than 38%, marking the strongest growth among all major destinations. While Türkiye retained its position as the seventh-largest buyer, its share of total US PE exports increased by 1% to 4%.
Find a lot more at ChemOrbis Stats Wizard
ChemOrbis Stats Wizard offers comprehensive and easy-to-navigate trade statistics, allowing users to track import and export flows by volume, partner, reporter, and market share. The tool enables monthly, quarterly and annual comparisons across countries, regions and trade blocs, covering a wide range of products and origins. Presented through clear tables and intuitive charts, Stats Wizard provides accurate, timely insights to support market analysis and strategic decision-making.
More free plastics news
Plastic resin (PP, LDPE, LLDPE ,HDPE, PVC, GPS; HIPS, PET, ABS) prices, polymer market trends, and more...- March hints at further hikes in European PP, PE markets
- India’s PVC market dips to new lows on Taiwan’s March cuts, players seek signs of bottom
- Q1 turnarounds uplift Mid-East PP, PE markets in February; will it spill over to March?
- SE Asia’s indefinite PE shutdowns: A market in crisis as demand woes threaten survival
- Türkiye’s PPH markets perform better than copolymers in February
- Margin recovery priorities outweigh supply imbalances in European PVC markets
- Asian PVC demand stagnant; recovery hopes shift to end of Q1
- Tough slog in S Korea’s petchem industry spells disappointing 2024 financial results; will government's recent plan help weather the storm?
- China’s PP, PE markets face post-holiday supply surge and tepid demand
- A tug-of-war unfolds in Türkiye as PVC demand struggles against rising costs
