US PE floods N. Africa and Southeast Asia at competitive prices in August

In early August, competitively priced US-origin PE cargoes flowed heavily into North Africa and Southeast Asia, as sellers sought available outlets to unload volumes amid sluggish demand in other regions. These markets absorbed surplus volumes that might otherwise have pressured prices more broadly, helping prevent a sharper decline across the board.

Market participants noted that interest in US cargoes was muted in Türkiye, Europe, and other key outlets, prompting a greater flow of material into these destinations and an intensified pressure on the low end of the import markets.

Cheaper US cargoes pressure select markets

Low-priced US cargoes undercut prices in select price-sensitive markets while avoiding deeper cuts elsewhere. Industry sources suggested that the heavier flow toward North Africa and Southeast Asia in August reflected unresponsive demand elsewhere, rather than a coordinated pricing push. By moving more volumes into these outlets, sellers were able to keep sales momentum without triggering heavier discounts in markets where buyers were largely inactive.

This move might be interpreted as an attempt not only to help avert a broader global price collapse but also leave room for sellers to attempt post-summer price gains in these markets.

Domestic US markets stay buoyed

The shift comes amid an uneventful hurricane season so far, though some buyers have still engaged in hedging purchases. Firm ethylene values and steady export flows also continue to support a cautiously firmer sentiment in the US domestic market for August, following a firmer trend in July. Additionally, the US-EU deal has partly eased trade pressure, keeping the door open for US PE to Europe.

Southeast Asia: Lower US offers pull prices down

After weeks of stability, Southeast Asia’s import PE film market turned softer at the start of August, particularly for LDPE and HDPE film grades. A steady stream of US cargoes at competitive levels eroded the support from ongoing Middle Eastern supply constraints as HDPE stood $70/ton below Middle Eastern origins last week.

Vietnam saw US LDPE film prices below the $1050/ton CIF, cash threshold, while HDPE film and b/m offers hit as low as $850/ton or slightly below with the same terms. Demand conditions remain tepid across the region, with converters and traders in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia largely sticking to just-in-time buying amid looming US tariff changes and low end-use activity. Some Vietnamese buyers also anticipated downward pressure on domestic prices following Long Son Petrochemicals’ mid-August restart, further dampening appetite for imports.

North Africa: US offers aggressively below mainstream origins

In North Africa, the arrival of US cargoes significantly eroded the low ends of PE price ranges, reversing July’s firmer tone. US-origin material stood at least €100/ton ($117/ton) below the Middle Eastern origins. Contrary to popular belief, these competitive levels were for prime materials.

In Morocco, sporadic US offers were heard at €820-840/ton ($960-984/ton with recent parity) for LLDPE C4 film and €790-810/ton ($925-948/ton) for HDPE grades, all on CFR Casablanca, cash basis.

Nigeria’s market also saw US cargoes forming the low ends at $1030-1040/ton CFR for LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film, b/m and injection, although not necessarily heavily undercutting other origins.

Türkiye and Europe: Small adjustments, limited appetite

Elsewhere, price movements were minimal. In Türkiye, most US PE film prices were assessed slightly softer amid moderate volumes. However, they were just $20-30/ton under Middle Eastern origins, offering little incentive for buyers. The recent US-EU framework agreement, which removed earlier concerns over blocked US access to Europe, also helped US sellers avoid steep discounts in Türkiye. The earlier fear that US PE would flood the Turkish market if Europe remained closed has dissipated for now.

In Europe, even though US-origin PE now faces no tariffs under the new framework, August’s holiday lull has kept trade flows and interest minimal. Fresh offers for US material with October-November delivery were reported stable to $30/ton higher, while some sellers in Italy reported attempts for modest increases for later shipments, suggesting stronger export price targets from US suppliers for the post-summer period.

Outlook: Pockets of softness persist

Barring a major supply disruption, global spot PE prices are likely to stay soft through August, with September’s potential seasonal uptick unlikely to reverse the broader downtrend. US sellers may continue directing competitive pricing toward demand-starved markets, while holding firm in regions showing limited buying interest. The real test will come if hurricane season turns disruptive, potentially reshaping US export flows once again.