US PE set for tariff escape: Will Europe breathe easier on main supplier?

The latest list published by the European Commission suggests that not only LLDPE but also LDPE and HDPE grades from the US may be excluded from the EU’s proposed retaliatory tariffs, as they are not found in the full list of products originating in or from the United States which could be subject to possible commercial policy measures.

If confirmed, this would mean that all major PE grades from the US—LLDPE, mLLDPE, LDPE, and HDPE—are spared, a move that would ease market concerns over potential supply shocks and price volatility in Europe.

Around April 11, market participants welcomed the news that US-origin LLDPE and mLLDPE might be exempt from tariffs, which has now seemingly expanded to cover LDPE and HDPE as well. The updated list, circulated as part of the EU’s response within the framework of ongoing trade tensions with the US, has reassured many European buyers and players who rely heavily on US cargoes for their PE supply.

Background

In early April, the US introduced steep new tariffs—including a 20% duty on EU goods and a 25% levy on vehicles and car parts—on top of existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and related products imposed in February 2025. In response, the EU prepared countermeasures but agreed to a temporary 90-day pause after the US eased the 20% tariff to 10% on April 9. The EU followed suit on April 14, suspending its planned retaliatory measures to allow room for negotiations. Despite the pause, around €379 billion—or 70%—of EU exports to the U.S. remain affected by these new or suspended tariffs, creating economic strain, higher costs, and greater uncertainty.

All US PE grades may escape EU tariffs: Trade volumes underscore US importance

The US has cemented its position as Europe’s top PE supplier, thanks to ample production capacity and cost advantages tied to shale-based feedstocks, particularly starting from 2019. Although there were fluctuations in supply volumes, the US has maintained or regained the top spot in most years since then. The 2024 data further solidifies the US’s dominant role in the European PE import market, with a significant increase in volumes in the past five years.

According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, Europe imported 5 million tons of PE, excluding intra trade, in 2024, slightly falling short of the 2022 record. The US corresponded to a 36% market share—an increase of 20% from the previous year.

In a product-based breakdown, the US was by far the dominant supplier for mLLDE, providing over 60% of Europe’s total mLLDPE imports. This marked a yearly increase of around 20%.

US-origin LLDPE had a share of 20% in 2024, after an increase of 12% on the year.

The US LDPE maintained its lead with a market share of 36%. The volume rose by 10% from 2023.

US HDPE shipments staged an eye-catching 28% increase from 2023,making the US the second-largest supplier with a 25% share.

These figures clearly highlight the vital role of US-origin materials—one that is growing at an accelerating pace—in stabilizing European PE supply. A wave of site closures in the EU reinforced the dependency on imports. If all US PE grades remain exempt, Europe won’t face the feared disruption in trade routes or a scramble to find alternative sources at higher costs. Even in the event that the EU and US fail to reach a resolution by the end of the 90-day truce period, these exemptions would ensure continuity.

A maintained buffer against high costs and flood of imported end products

European PE producers already grapple with high energy and production costs, putting them at a disadvantage against regions with cheaper raw materials. Access to competitively priced US cargoes helps maintain the viability of local production, supporting European converters who would otherwise risk losing competitiveness to imported finished goods.

If Europe were to lose access to US-origin PE, converters might be forced to shift toward cheaper, imported finished products—particularly from Asia. This risk remains on the horizon, especially if tariffs between the US and China or other Asian countries go into effect, potentially redirecting cheap finished goods into the EU. But with US PE flows intact, European producers and converters are better shielded from this competitive pressure, preserving local industry stability.

Clouds of uncertainty persist, yet a break in the storm looms

If the newly published EU list stands and all US PE grades are indeed exempt, the outcome would be a steady continuation of the current trade flows. Europe would avoid sudden disruptions, retain access to critical and cost-effective feedstocks, and stave off an accelerated shift toward finished imports. This will not only ensure price balance in Europe by averting the cost inflation that could stem from a potential shift in supplier dynamics but also mitigate the risk of potential supply gaps amid this anticipated transition. The US, in turn, would likely maintain its role as the cornerstone of Europe’s PE import market, irrespective of broader trade disputes.

US PE shipments to EU ramp up during truce but logistics mishaps show up

US ports have grappled with significant container shortages and a lack of available vessels, primarily due to the trade tensions between the US and China. The trade standoff led to a significant drop in container shipments from China, severely impacting US ports. Although Chinese exporters are preparing to resume shipments to the US following the temporary tariff reduction, the full impact of the tariffs and the pace of recovery remain uncertain.

European PE markets unrattled by delays

European players noted that several US shipments faced delays due to vessel and container shortages—pushing delivery schedules into July. Some traders even cancelled part of their orders amid uncertainty surrounding the post-90-day tariff window.

However, these delays did not cause much jitters among players, considering the overall stagnancy and the approaching summer holidays in the region. Some grades, including HDPE b/m and LDPE, are already ample within the bloc. Meanwhile, LLDPE and mLLDPE grades were somewhat supported by tighter supply.