US PVC sinks to pandemic-era lows across key markets; is this rock bottom?

US-origin PVC has tumbled to fresh five-year lows across major markets including Türkiye, Egypt, China, and Southeast Asia, dragging global benchmarks back to levels last seen in the early months of the pandemic and raising questions about whether the market has finally reached rock bottom. The fall underscores the relentless pressure of oversupply and weak demand, as well as the ripple effects of India’s newly imposed anti-dumping duties (ADDs), which have disrupted trade flows worldwide.

By contrast, India’s PVC market has broken away from the downtrend, with imports climbing to a seven-month high as the new duties cut off Chinese inflows and boosted offers from alternative suppliers.

China: Pandemic-era lows loom again

In China, the lowest-priced US cargoes were offered at $620/ton CIF this week, marking the weakest levels since May 2020, according to ChemOrbis Price Index, when offers briefly touched $590-600/ton. Despite entering the traditional peak demand season, downstream operating rates remain sluggish, with producers citing a persistent imbalance between supply and demand, weak futures, and muted sentiment.

Amid intensifying competition, Chinese suppliers trimmed ethylene-based K67 export offers by another $10-15/ton from last week to defend market share. The midpoint of the current FOB China range is now close to June’s low, which was the weakest since 2008.

Southeast Asia: US offers dip below Chinese cargoes

US cargoes are also dragging Southeast Asia’s import market down. The lowest US offer was pegged at $610/ton CIF Vietnam this week, undercutting the prevailing Chinese floor of $625/ton and pulling the low end of the overall ChemOrbis Price Index to its weakest point since May 2020.

Regional demand remains muted, with most converters sticking to need-based purchases amid weak end-product orders. “Demand for our end products is weak, so we still prefer to buy on a need basis,” a Vietnamese converter said.

Competition is heating up as Chinese suppliers divert more volumes to Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, after losing access to India under sharp ADDs. The region now faces simultaneous pressure from both Chinese and US cargoes.

Türkiye: Weak demand magnifies US slide

In Türkiye, US-origin PVC offers tumbled to fresh lows under pressure from India’s ADD, even as non-dutiable origins held relatively firm. Dutiable US K67 slipped to $620/ton CIF this week, suggesting the lowest levels since May 2020 based on the low end of ChemOrbis Price Index, while Chinese offers hovered around $710/ton CIF, or slightly below, but failed to attract interest given much lower American cargoes.

Some traders noted increased spot activity in response to these steeply discounted levels, though most doubted that such prices would prove sustainable. By contrast, non-dutiable European and Egyptian origins stabilized at prevailing levels, supported by reduced availability, squeezed margins, and the disappearance of South Korean cargoes, which were redirected to India to capture stronger netbacks.

The wide gap between dutiable and duty-free ranges has persisted, but market participants agree that non-dutiable origins are unlikely to mirror the US downtrend. Sellers increasingly believe the market is near a floor, citing razor-thin margins, firmer intentions from European producers, and the absence of Korean offers.

Egypt: US prices collapse below $650 CIF

In Egypt, US PVC extended its bearish run for a third consecutive week, with sharper declines tied directly to India’s ADD and the ensuing trade reshuffle.

US K67 was assessed at $640-670/ton CIF last week, the lowest since May 2020, according to ChemOrbis Price Index. Sellers said oversupply and muted derivative demand were compounded by the sudden diversion of cargoes originally bound for India.

Market participants expect further pressure at the low end, particularly from Chinese sellers, though many doubt significant additional cuts are possible given multi-year lows already in place.

India: Prices defy global downtrend

In sharp contrast, India’s import PVC market is rallying. Prices reached $720-760/ton CIF last week, their highest since February, amid reduced Chinese presence and reshaped sourcing patterns. A major Taiwanese producer sold out September allocations at $760/ton, while Japanese and South Korean producers are eyeing larger shares under the new ADD regime.

The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recently finalized ADDs on imports from seven countries, including China, the US, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Japan. The steepest penalties fell on Chinese exporters, effectively curbing their aggressive inflows. US suppliers also face duties, though at relatively lower rates.

India’s policy shift marks a turning point for global trade flows. With China losing its dominant foothold, accounting for 53% of India’s H1 2025 imports, suppliers from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and potentially Europe are set to gain ground.

Is this the bottom?

With US-origin PVC at its lowest since the pandemic across Egypt, Türkiye, China, and Southeast Asia, many players are questioning how much further prices can realistically fall. While oversupply remains entrenched and demand sluggish, particularly outside India, some sellers argue that the downtrend may be nearing exhaustion.

Whether these pandemic-era lows represent a true floor will depend on how aggressively China adjusts its offers in the weeks ahead, how quickly India’s ADD enforcement takes effect, and whether muted demand in Turkey and MENA begins to show signs of life.