US natural gas up sharply to 3-year high; spread with Europe hits lowest since 2021

US and European gas markets are moving in sharply opposite directions, creating one of the most striking regional contradictions in recent years. While US Henry Hub prices just recorded their highest November average in three years at $3.79/MMBtu, Europe’s benchmark TTF has tumbled below $9/MMBtu, a level last seen in April 2024. As a result, the TTF–Henry Hub spread has narrowed dramatically.

Henry Hub hovers around $5/MMBtu

In the United States, prices have climbed on firmer domestic fundamentals. Henry Hub is averaging $3.46/MMBtu in 2025, supported by steady demand, seasonal heating needs and a market recovering from last year’s low point. The November average is not only well above the $2.10 seen a year earlier but also sits above the five-year seasonal norm, signalling a tightening domestic balance. As of December, the month-to-date average suggests even a much higher level of $4.95, nearing the December 2022 peak at $5.78, according to ChemOrbis Price Wizard.

Abundant LNG imports push TTF down

Europe, by contrast, is experiencing falling prices despite conditions that would typically push them higher. Cold weather has arrived early, and gas storage levels are 10% below the five-year average, with Germany even further behind at 67%. Yet TTF continues to drop. The decisive factor is the surge in US LNG inflows, which have reshaped Europe’s supply landscape. US cargoes have made up around 56% of Europe’s LNG imports this year, easily offsetting weaker Russian pipeline deliveries and subdued Asian demand. This abundant supply has pushed TTF down and compressed the price differential with the US.

Is it a return to a normalizing gap?

The shift is so pronounced that the spread has fallen from about $12/MMBtu at the start of 2025 to just $4.8, the lowest since 2021. TTF now trades near $8/MMBtu, while Henry Hub price trades around $5/MMBtu, the spread of which points to a far cry from the extreme $90/MMBtu gap seen during the 2022 crisis, ChemOrbis Price Wizard also tells.

The result is a market in which US gas is strengthening while Europe softens, driven largely by the same factor: record-high US LNG exports. As long as American LNG continues to act as Europe’s pressure valve, the transatlantic spread is likely to remain structurally narrower than in recent years.