US pressure sends LLDPE film prices to multi-year lows in SEA

In Southeast Asia’s LLDPE film market, expectations of a September rebound on the back of seasonal demand have quickly unraveled. Prices have instead extended their downtrend under the weight of aggressive US-origin offers. Rather than gaining momentum from the late-August optimism, the market has sunk to multi-year lows, further pressured by persistently weak demand and cautious purchasing among downstream buyers.

US offers approach 5-year lows

As of the week ending September 5, LLDPE film prices in the region registered fresh decreases of $20/ton, driven largely by reduced US-origin offers into Vietnam and Malaysia. Prices have continued to soften this week, with the low end of the range now appearing at $880/ton CIF, cash.The overall LLDPE film range currently stands at $880-1000/ton CIF, while US-origin cargoes are quoted between $880-930/ton on the same terms. According to weekly average data obtained from ChemOrbis Price Index, the price for all origins has reached its lowest level since late July 2023, while the US offer is approaching its five-year lows.



A Vietnamese converter, who received an $880/ton offer, commented, “US LLDPE offers dropped sharply, with new levels appearing at $880/ton CIF, cash. We placed a bid at $850/ton, and it seems the seller may accept.”

The buyer added that the resin was packed in loose bags under a trader’s name, which partly explained the discount compared with producer-branded cargoes. Market sources confirmed that packaging differences create notable price gaps, with loose-bag cargoes typically fetching lower prices thanks to reduced packaging and shipping costs.

Weak demand compounds ample US supply

The influx of competitively priced US cargoes has collided with an absence of a seasonal boost in demand, leaving sentiment increasingly bearish. Converters and traders alike anticipate additional declines for LLDPE film, while LDPE and HDPE film may find some support from supply tightness.

“Demand remains very weak, with no clear signs of a year-end recovery. We expect further drops, especially in LLDPE prices, as ample US supply continues to exert downward pressure on sellers,” the Vietnamese converter said.

This stands in stark contrast to late August, when Middle Eastern suppliers attempted price hikes in hopes of seasonal restocking. Those efforts quickly faltered as downstream buyers, facing sluggish end-product sales, limited their purchases to immediate needs.

A Singaporean trader observed, “Buyers are struggling with slow demand and weak finished goods prices. They only restock raw materials on a just-in-time basis.”

With September failing to deliver its usual momentum, PE sellers are left grappling with a muted high season, overshadowed by sluggish demand and a persistent US-led supply overhang.