US undercuts rivals, pushing import PE prices to multi-year lows in major markets

In recent months, competitive US PE offers have spread across major import markets as producers sought to destock amid weak global demand. Their sharply priced cargoes, particularly for LLDPE, often set the low ends of ranges or undercut Middle Eastern suppliers in Türkiye, Southeast Asia, Europe, and China, while Africa also saw cheaper US volumes.

Whether this aggressive stance will extend into Q4 remains uncertain, but for now, US sellers have cemented their position at the low end of global ranges — in some cases even below — leaving rival suppliers with limited room to defend market share.

Southeast Asia: US LLDPE and HDPE hit pandemic lows

In Southeast Asia, the expected seasonal uptick in September failed to materialize. Instead, LLDPE film prices slid to multi-year lows, pressured by aggressively discounted US-origin cargoes.

US LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film offers fell to their lowest levels since August 2020 on a weekly average, ChemOrbis Price Index showed, while LDPE hit its lowest in a year and a half. US offers stood about $70/ton below Middle Eastern prices. Vietnamese buyers were confident that LLDPE film bids at $850/ton for loose-bag cargoes—cheaper than producer-branded resin—would be accepted. Market players said packaging differences widened price gaps, with trader-packed lots accelerating the downward move.

Middle Eastern producers’ late-August hike attempts quickly collapsed as converters resisted higher costs. A Singaporean trader noted that buyers “are struggling with slow demand and weak finished goods prices,” leaving sentiment weak despite what is typically the high season.

Pressure was particularly pronounced in Vietnam, where competitive US offers pulled the overall LLDPE import market to its lowest since mid-June 2023. LDPE and HDPE film markets also fell to 3-month lows, despite reports of limited LDPE availability in the country. Indeed, a Saudi Arabian major issued lower PE prices for October cargos, with LDPE seeing a notable $50/ton price cut compared to $10-30/ton drops for LLDPE and HDPE film.

China: US PE trades at its lowest levels since 2020

China’s PE market also came under pressure, despite September usually bringing stronger consumption. Seasonal restocking was muted, while US-origin offers competed directly with Middle Eastern cargoes, with current offers standing at their lowest level since July 2020, according to ChemOrbis data.

Market sentiment was dampened by hesitant buying activity, as converters limited purchases to immediate needs. This capped further gains on top of those seen in late August, ahead of the “Golden September-Silver October” period. Although some HDPE tightness offered support, the broader tone stayed subdued, with ample US supply outweighing seasonal demand expectations.

Europe: US LLDPE aggressive, local PE prices see almost 2-year lows

European PE markets entered September under strain, with aggressive US LLDPE offers adding to the pressure alongside long regional supply. In Italy, US C4 LLDPE film was reported at €900/ton DDP, 60 days — €80/ton below the low end of FD spot levels that are the lowest since late July 2023, based on ChemOrbis Price Index. Traders added that fresh October offers for Dec–Jan delivery came in slightly lower, highlighting year-end destocking drives.

European producers further weighed on prices by conceding discounts to clear high inventories, while hopes for post-summer demand recovery quickly faded as converters remained cautious. LDPE bore the brunt, dipping below €1100/ton for non-European origins in Italy, with HDPE and LLDPE also slipping under €1000/ton.

Adding to the scene has been the EU’s proposal to remove the 6.5% duty on US PE imports. Although still pending approval, the move has already shaped sentiment. Some buyers foresee larger US inflows, while others expect American suppliers to raise prices to protect margins rather than pass on the duty benefit.

Türkiye: US PE hits 5-year lows, sending Mideast offers to around 2-year lows

Türkiye has been one of the sharpest battlegrounds where US PE toppled Middle Eastern suppliers. After a soft August, September brought steeper losses as rollover attempts from the Middle East failed against discounted US shipments. ChemOrbis Price Index data showed US LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film plunging to 5-year lows, dragging Middle Eastern offers to their weakest in more than two years.

LLDPE bore the brunt, with trader-bag cargoes slipping just under $900/ton CIF, erasing the grade’s two-month premium over HDPE. Sporadic Middle Eastern deals were heard at $950/ton CIF for LLDPE and HDPE film, while LDPE dropped to $1070/ton CIF — a low last seen in January 2024.

Financial strains and thin consumption capped demand into late Q3. While some speculate US producers could ease their aggressive stance later in the year, most agree Türkiye’s market remains trapped between poor netbacks and muted demand.

North Africa: Import HDPE nears two-year low on mounting US pressure

Africa’s PE markets have extended their downtrend into September, particularly in North Africa, given the pressure from competitive US cargoes, weak demand, and a lack of supply tightness. American material has consistently anchored the low ends of price ranges, reinforcing the bearish tone that emerged in August and sending the import HDPE market to a near two-year low, according to ChemOrbis Price Index.

In Morocco, aggressive US offers undercut Saudi and regional levels by more than $100/ton in the second half of August. As September kicked off, the pressure from American sellers lingered, with LDPE and LLDPE film hovering below €1000/ton and €850/ton, respectively, and HDPE film standing at/slightly below €800/ton in Morocco on a CIF basis. Overall, US cargos weighed on the high ends of September prices from a Saudi Arabian major, leading to monthly declines of €40-50/ton.

Heading into Q4, demand remained muted and costs provided little support, leaving US competition as the dominant force keeping recovery efforts in check.