Vietnam flagged in EU PET investigation; Türkiye off the radar

Amid earlier speculation pointing to a possible anti-dumping investigation into polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports from both Türkiye and Vietnam, the European Commission has ultimately launched proceedings against Vietnam alone. While Vietnamese PET is now under formal scrutiny, Turkish PET appears to have dodged the bullet for now, leaving market participants to assess the implications of the EU’s selective move.

A Turkish player noted, “Although it was initially heard that European resin producers filed complaints against both Türkiye and Vietnam, the EU authorities decided to proceed only with Vietnam. They likely needed to secure alternative sources, as targeting Türkiye as well would have posed a supply risk. After all, they already launched an investigation into China last year—if Türkiye had been added too, there would’ve been hardly any viable source left for the bloc.”

Initial rumors targeted both Türkiye and Vietnam

Back in mid-May, industry chatter suggested that the European Commission was gearing up to target PET imports from both Türkiye and Vietnam. Market players cited growing concern over growing imports and its impact on pricing from these two suppliers, who collectively filled the supply vacuum left by China after the bloc imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on Chinese PET in April 2024.

Indeed, ChemOrbis Stats Wizard data showed that imports from Türkiye and Vietnam jointly make up around 50% of total EU PET imports in 2024, up from a cumulative 38% share the year before. Imports from Vietnam have been growing at an increasing pace in the past five years, while Türkiye claimed the top spot among PET suppliers to the EU in 2023 and 2024 despite more modest yearly increases.

Between 2020 and 2024, Türkiye’s share in the EU PET market grew by around 1.6 times, while Vietnam’s share surged by 3.4 times.

Vietnam singled out as Türkiye gets a pass

Despite the speculation, only Vietnam is facing an official investigation. On May 22, the European Commission confirmed that it had initiated an anti-dumping probe into Vietnamese PET classified under CN code 3907 61 00, citing significant undercutting of domestic prices and injury to EU producers. The investigation covers calendar year 2024, with broader injury assessments stretching back to 2021.

The absence of Türkiye from the formal probe has not gone unnoticed, sparking debate over the rationale behind the EU’s selective approach. One possible explanation lies in price behavior. While Vietnamese PET was reportedly priced well below local European levels, market participants suggest Turkish PET was trading within a more neutral range.

“Turkish PET prices usually stand at par with the local ranges. That’s likely why they’ve avoided scrutiny for now,” commented a distributor based in Germany.

In other words, although Türkiye significantly ramped up its market share by around 30% on the year in 2024, it may have done so without resorting to pricing strategies that would clearly undercut EU producers—at least not to a level that would trigger official complaints or investigations.

Short-term stability for Turkish suppliers

For now, Turkish PET producers seem poised to benefit from this outcome. With China effectively shut out and Vietnam potentially facing duties in the coming months, Türkiye may further solidify its role as a key PET supplier to Europe. As Vietnam forms around a quarter of the union’s imports, Türkiye may fill part of this gap. Buyers who may shift away from Vietnamese sources could increasingly lean on Turkish volumes, especially in the absence of any formal restrictions.

Still, the market remains wary. “Just because Türkiye isn’t under investigation now doesn’t mean it’s off the radar for good,” said a trader in Italy. “The Commission could revisit this if pricing or market share trends become more aggressive.”

Market players are keeping a close eye on upcoming trade flows, particularly during the peak PET season. While current spot prices remain subdued and demand slow to pick up, the potential for a reshuffling of import origins looms in the background.

According to Stats Wizard, Türkiye has been a net exporter since 2015, with annual PET exports reaching an all-time high in 2024. The country continues to strengthen its role as a key exporter in the global PET landscape.

In a significant move to boost domestic production and international competitiveness, SASA commissioned a new PET chips production facility in Adana on April 30, with an annual capacity of 330,000 tons. This followed the company’s earlier milestone on March 3, when it commenced commercial operations at its PTA plant, which has a sizeable production capacity of 1.75 million tons/year.

These strategic investments are expected to markedly enhance SASA’s production efficiency and export potential, while simultaneously reducing its reliance on imports. The added capacities are widely anticipated to serve export markets—particularly in nearby Europe and the Middle East—solidifying Türkiye’s standing as a regional powerhouse in the PET value chain.

Lukewarm market reaction to Vietnamese investigation

Interestingly, the EU’s move to investigate Vietnam has met with a rather lukewarm response from PET buyers across the region. Many believe the impact will be manageable, pointing to the availability of alternative suppliers.

“There are plenty of import origins that can fill the gap if Vietnamese volumes are reduced,” said a buyer in Spain. “Egypt and even Pakistan have been increasing their presence.”

Egypt’s market share in the EU PET market nearly doubled between 2020 and 2024, while Pakistan’s share grew by almost threefold.

Indeed, several countries—including South Korea, India, and Indonesia—have seen their footprint in the EU PET market shrink over the past five years. Between 2020 and 2024, India’s market share in the EU PET market shrank by nearly 5 times, while South Korea’s and Indonesia’s shares dropped by around 4 and 3 times, respectively.

As the PET market navigates a period of record-low margins and persistently weak demand, Europe’s continued dependence on competitively priced imports remains clear. Whether Türkiye remains exempt in the long run will depend on how its pricing and export volumes evolve in the face of rising scrutiny and shifting trade dynamics.