War-driven frenzy fades: Türkiye’s PP and PE markets retreat from unsustainable highs

Türkiye’s polyolefin markets have entered a broader correction phase, with both import and locally held PP and PE prices easing further amid fading panic buying, deteriorating downstream demand, and tightening cash conditions. After nearly two months of war-driven volatility and aggressive price inflation following the outbreak of the US–Iran conflict escalation in 2026, buyers have increasingly shifted to hand-to-mouth purchasing patterns, unwilling to replenish stocks at historically elevated levels ahead of the long May holidays.

Competitive Chinese polyolefin cargoes that have been flowing into Türkiye since April, alongside signals of slightly improving operations at a few Middle Eastern producers, have also helped cool sentiment. However, supply from mainstream Middle Eastern suppliers remains far from normalized amid ongoing plant shutdowns and backlogs.

Russian PP eventually aligns with broader market

Import PP prices continued to edge lower over the week, as buyers focused more on shrinking order books and liquidity concerns than on ongoing regional supply disruptions. While production outages and logistical bottlenecks across the Middle East have not fully disappeared, market participants increasingly agreed that panic-driven premiums had become unsustainable in the absence of healthy downstream consumption.



One of the market’s key developments was the return of a Saudi Arabian producer with stock-based homo-PP sales despite its offline production status. Players stressed that these were not fresh cargoes, but rather previously accumulated inventories released into the market after earlier logistical disruptions. The re-emergence of these materials, combined with prompt Bulgarian and Turkmen FCA offers, helped ease immediate shortage concerns and reinforced the recent downtrend in import prices. At the same time, Russian suppliers revised their PP offers downward after maintaining elevated levels for nearly a month, largely aligning with prevailing Saudi Arabian levels.

Pressure from Chinese-origin PP cargoes, which have been available at attractive levels since April, also remained a major factor behind the softer mood. Locally held PP markets mirrored weakness in the import segment and Petkim’s downward price adjustments, with more distributors offering discounts to stimulate buying interest and secure profit-taking. Some converters were even heard reselling resin inventories to generate liquidity rather than processing finished goods at weak margins. Although material technically remains tight, demand fatigue has prevented supply shortages from being felt as severely as during March’s panic-buying phase.

PE buyers push back against Middle Eastern hike attempts, US offers keep sliding

PE markets also extended their downward correction, particularly in the domestic channel, where distributor prices continued to soften following downward revisions from Petkim. After weeks of uninterrupted hikes since the onset of the Middle East conflict, the local producer cut its LDPE and HDPE prices, reflecting the market’s inability to absorb additional increases amid weak derivative demand and tightening financial conditions. Slow orders from end-product sectors, combined with buyers’ reluctance to hold expensive inventories ahead of the holidays, continued to weigh on activity.



In imports, US PE offers have receded further under pressure from competitive Chinese cargoes that have been increasingly visible since April. Chinese-origin PE continued to offer Turkish buyers a relatively affordable alternative compared to elevated American and Middle Eastern levels, forcing US suppliers to gradually revise their prices lower.

At the same time, some Middle Eastern producers attempted to test fresh May increases for PE grades, citing persistent regional supply tightness, particularly for LDPE grades. However, buyers largely pushed back against these attempts, with bids remaining well below sellers’ targets amid weak purchasing appetite.

Meanwhile, signs of operational recovery at certain regional plants also contributed to the easing sentiment. Market participants pointed to restart news from some Saudi Arabian PE facilities, as well as improving operating rates at certain UAE units, including Borouge’s cracker operations. Although these developments have not fully restored supply flows, with force majeures on supply remaining in place for select PP and PE grades, they have reduced the perception of extreme scarcity that dominated the market during March and April. Still, PE availability from major producers remains constrained, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz continues to operate far below normal capacity and production losses caused by the April attacks continue to weigh on regional output.

Was the impact of production losses overstated?

As corrections deepen, an increasingly debated question in the Turkish market is whether some war-driven supply fears had been exaggerated in the first place. While the conflict undoubtedly caused severe logistical disruptions, plant shutdowns, and regional production losses, recent market developments suggest that certain producers may be returning faster than initially expected through partial restarts, inventory sales, and operational adjustments. “We heard supply from Iran remains short while PE signals an improvement,” a player said.

Nevertheless, players remain cautious about declaring a normalization phase. The Middle East supply chain is still operating under abnormal conditions, with regional logistics remaining fragile and overall export availability well below pre-war norms. In other words, the recent price declines do not necessarily indicate comfortable supply fundamentals, but rather reflect the reality that demand destruction, financial strain, and fading panic buying have started to outweigh earlier fears of acute shortages.

The coming weeks will likely determine whether the current easing trend evolves into a more sustainable correction or merely represents a temporary pause within a structurally tight market environment.

It is worth noting that both imported and domestic PP and PE markets are still well above pre-war levels. The charts above from ChemOrbis clearly show that, so far, prices have only given back a minimal portion of the gains they had accumulated over the previous two months. Market participants are wondering whether demand will improve after the Eid al-Adha holiday. As the second quarter of the year draws to a close, demand rather than supply-side developments will be the main determining factor.